KRAKEN:ETHEUR   ETHEUR
5 months ago
We had massive moves in DAO and ETH pairs today, due to the news regarding a problem with the code in the DAO.
Apparently, the uptrend is still in place, but there is a lot of fear in the air right now. This is the right enviroment to buy dips, and as you can see the support is holding for now (see green triangle and the dashed lines).

Technically speaking, I think the uptrend isn't ready to resume in full force, since we don't have sufficient time spent at these upper echelons (can't blame me for using the term :) ) to prove that there is re-accumulation before uptrend continuation as per the 'Time at mode' rules.

That being said, for as long as we're making 1 new high every 5 bars, we're technically in an uptrend, and for as long as the red dashed speed line holds, bulls are still present in this pair. For now, I reccomend holding ETH if you own any, if you were margin called out of your positions (like I was), sadly you're out with some loss. This brings me to the topic of leverage and crypto trading. If you consider the average volatility these instruments have, paired with the exchanges' problems, right at the worst possible time, you can conclude that is better to just buy the coins with cash, withdraw from the exchange and wait to sell when your price targets are hit, which will force you to adopt smaller position sizes, and trade from a longer term perspective.
I hope you found this useful, I'll keep updating this chart once I see clear signs of the uptrend resuming.

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Ivan Labrie

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We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.


Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
5 months ago
Comment: The speed line support broke down with force, this doesn't bode well for ETH...I'd say it's 'dead', but well.
5 months ago
Comment: My bad, I misjudged one element of price action. Actually, while above 8.8 we have some odds of moving up. We could aggressively buy with stops there, but it's risky.
We'd need to wait one week to fully confirm if the uptrend can resume from here.
5 months ago
Comment: A follower's question inspired an important answer and information to keep in mind:

"Technical analysis will show you the market's reactions to the fundamental events. I agree time needs to pass. At least I'd need 1-2 weeks before I can safely long ETH again, and a few things would need to happen, as triggers, for me to take any position.
So, in a way, I'm responding to fundamentals, as observed in the market's reaction, and not my own personal interpretation. This is what technical analysis does for me.
The fact that we broke my technical uptrend support, means something fundamental changed and the perception of ETH is now negative. At one point, it'll turn around I think, because, the problem is with DAO and not ETH directly, and because the chart is set up in such a way, that it still makes it possible to expect uptrend continuation from here.
I'll update it as we go, for now, better stand aside."
5 months ago
Trade active: I'm long with 25% downside risk. (you can use a 25% trailing stop)
5 months ago
Comment: (I'd favor ETHBTC over ETHEUR mind you...the position is in ETHBTC not ETHEUR)
5 months ago
Comment: Up from 0.0165 to 0.0171. Not huge progress, but I like the reaction to the upside in ETHBTC, while BTCUSD falls.
5 months ago
Comment: Excellent progress...anyone caught this trade?
5 months ago
Trade closed manually: Taking profits here is ok, or at least partially.
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
B00mView
5 months ago
Very good, thanks for that.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP B00mView
5 months ago
You're welcome. I think it's good to keep these things in mind, from an investor's perspective. It can be really dangerous to trade crypto without considering volatility and unexpected events like this to determine your exposure.
Cheers!
Reply
B00mView IvanLabrie
5 months ago
Yes, today was definitely a wake up call for me!!
Reply
I_see_BTC PRO
5 months ago
Be greedy when others are fearful...
+1 Reply
herkuljee
5 months ago
My stop loss limit worked fine at 0.023 (Kraken) so I consider myself lucky (and couple day before limit was in 0.0195). This was a good remainder though. Heard many people saying their trailing stops didn't trigger. I don't like the fact that exchanges closing tools don't work when they should. Also they start lagging and not responding when these dumps occur. This can be a factor indeed for the investors.

I don't dare going long yet, waiting patiently as I have some DAO as well I didn't sell. Is there something we can learn from VW drop and pattern after that? I know it's a long shot as everything in crypto happens fast forwarded and this is different "world" but I am feeling similarities here.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP herkuljee
5 months ago
Yes, we can learn that black swan events like these can and will happen, so we have to take some precautions. We can tell before hand if an instrument is riskier than some other one, like with crypto compared with Forex, for example. I have been of the opinion that it's better to trade crypto in longer term timeframes, and with wide stop losses to avoid problems with exchanges going offline, gaps, margin calls (if not using leverage, a non issue), etc.
Also, we can learn that when everybody pannicked, VLKAY formed a very good buy setup, so it's good to buy when others sell at times. Just need to tell the sentiment extremes, from any normal drop.
+1 Reply
DomarkasM
5 months ago
Does technical analysis makes sense now? I mean, reputation was damaged of ETH, also "hackers" are threatening to take legal action if soft/hard fork will be implemented. On the other hand, if forking will be done, as I understand people would start questioning the actions of the team behind ETH. In turn affecting reputation.. What I am trying to say is that fundamentals are affecting price action much more at this point. Am I wrong?
P.S. I am noob at trading, but I am just trying to think that this situation needs time to play out. At least 27 days until the attackers could move coins or the forking will be implemented.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP DomarkasM
5 months ago
Hi, yes, it does. Technical analysis will show you the market's reactions to the fundamental events. I agree time needs to pass. At least I'd need 1-2 weeks before I can safely long ETH again, and a few things would need to happen, as triggers, for me to take any position.
So, in a way, I'm responding to fundamentals, as observed in the market's reaction, and not my own personal interpretation. This is what technical analysis does for me.
The fact that we broke my technical uptrend support, means something fundamental changed and the perception of ETH is now negative. At one point, it'll turn around I think, because, the problem is with DAO and not ETH directly, and because the chart is set up in such a way, that it still makes it possible to expect uptrend continuation from here.
I'll update it as we go, for now, better stand aside.
Reply
DomarkasM IvanLabrie
5 months ago
Thank you for your answer.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP DomarkasM
5 months ago
You're welcome, have a nice week.
Reply
AgustinAlbertengo
5 months ago
so basically is you are saying that is better to buy ETHBTC instead of ETHEUR? Why is that, i'm new to trading?
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP AgustinAlbertengo
5 months ago
It's because I want to short BTC, but I also want to buy ETH.
Reply
awe.investars
5 months ago
Any update on ETHBTC chart?
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP awe.investars
5 months ago
I'm posting here mainly. ETHBTC seems to have bottomed (etheur, maybe too, but less safe).



snapshot


Notice the 2 key levels here: 0.0222 and 0.0167.
Reply
awe.investars IvanLabrie
5 months ago
Thanks Ivan.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP awe.investars
5 months ago
Welcome.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
5 months ago
Sidenote: notice the 'rubber band' behavior when dipping down and then back up above these levels.
Reply
AgustinAlbertengo
5 months ago
I caught it!
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP AgustinAlbertengo
5 months ago
Awesome!
Reply
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