Technician
Short

EURAUD: Pullback Time!

FX:EURAUD   Euro Fx/Australian Dollar
2246 34 28
The pair hit a major resistance level at 1.5020 where it was rejected forming a giant pin bar today. The horizontal resistance coincides with top of the short term ascending channel as shown on chart. I am looking for a pullback lower within the coming few days, targeting initially 1.4830 level. A break and stability above 1.5145 might negate this scenario.

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Technician
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moneymaking
2 years ago
Hey Technician, Thanks for sharing.

Good Luck Trading!!
+1 Reply
Technician TOP moneymaking
2 years ago
Thanks mate
+1 Reply
tomazzo
2 years ago
Thanks for the analysis. You are in this trade or wait?
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Technician TOP tomazzo
2 years ago
no i am not in until now
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moneymaking
2 years ago
Placed a sell limit order at 1.50200. Waiting for the market to come back up. Good luck to all !!
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Technician TOP moneymaking
2 years ago
Good luck.. I will short as well.
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moneymaking Technician
2 years ago
Thanks Technician, same to you !!
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mkay
2 years ago
hi,
can you elaborate a bit about your targets? personally i'd put TP somewhere above 1.46 here, but i'm rather a newbie trader....
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Technician TOP mkay
2 years ago
hello mkay, well simply my targets are the the nearest daily support levels( in this case the latest highs)
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At this point, it does look like a correction will occur. However, I would be more interested in trying to pick a long trade, because I believe we will see a much lower Australian dollar. After all it's about the trading style, I like to stay in a position longer, I feel more comfortable.
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vlad.adrian PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Forgot to mention that a buy signal at your target, 1.47 would be great and that is where I want to look for buying opportunities. However, my intuition is that we wont see this pair that low, but it's just a hunch. My hunches produced some very bad trades in the past :)
+1 Reply
mkay vlad.adrian
2 years ago
ok, thanks for explonation;)
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Technician TOP vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Good luck to you
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Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Thanks for sharing Technician. I noted this as well while going through my routine this morning (Asian time). Price definitely at interesting and tempting level to short, with the long upper wick (bearish pin bar in H4 as well). One thing that put me off from shorting is that this candle has a higher close. Good luck in this!
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Technician TOP Casey_Yeo
2 years ago
Thanks Casey
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jangseohee
2 years ago
EURAUD, aiming 1.5000 and beyond?
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IvanLabrie TOP jangseohee
2 years ago
Do you give so much credence to channels in general?
I wouldn't dare to buy AUD vs EUR at this point in time.
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Technician TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Well, i am still waiting for lower timeframe confirmation..
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IvanLabrie TOP Technician
2 years ago
I expect one or two more days of appreciation vs AUD.
If we don't see a drop by Monday, we will by Tuesday I'm sure.
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Technician TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
lets see where we close today as well, but so far no signs of reversal
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Weekly is really bullish, so I'd expect the decline to be short lived.
I get an estimate of 9 weeks actually.
snapshot
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Technician TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
yeah, in general lower yielders are outperforming higher yielders (commodity currencies) , I am long GBPCAD for a while now, playing well..
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IvanLabrie TOP Technician
2 years ago
That was a beautiful rally ;) Nice going.
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Ivan, how can i post here without officially publish my post?
By the way, do you see there that is a downtrend base on your chart?
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Sorry, downtrend channel again if it validates
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I would say from my own experience Channel is almost 80% accurate, of course on the channel top and bottom i must give allowance for break here and there, overall i trust it 80% of the time, 20 fails me, thats my humble opinion, all my post are very simple built based on channel and other simple tools

From my previous post, i shorted at 1.48 once and make money, but it keeps trying to break many many times, i know finally it will break, stabilize and move further north.

Especially since my H&S pattern fails, and i could draw a small branch of uptrend (in blue), i went in abit late, 1.48745 and after it broke previous H&S neckline resistance around 1.50295, i am so relieft. i am anticipating 1.52 if this is done, 1.55 but keep finger cross. Taking profits part by part, now at trailing stops

On the other hand, i also taking the cue from previous H&S top which the head broke out so far from the long term downtrend line and yet got SUCK back into the downtrend, anything is possible.

Plus MAs, MACD/RSI basically is enough for me

Since it almost hitting the blue channel top, i have actually convert to bears and intend to averaging shorts

AUzy dollar sucks now which is why this thing is happening, due to Oil/Mining in directly
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Technician TOP jangseohee
2 years ago
aha.. in most cases i wait for confirmation which is a great filtering strategy.. But recently i have been a bit impulsive, emotional, that affected my performance. A rule of thumb is to wait for confirmation regardless of the technical pattern you see.. IMHO..
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP Technician
2 years ago
Indeed, I'm on a strict emotional trading detox period myself :)
5% risk max, and really strict with my own rule book.
Good luck and have a great weekend!
+1 Reply
Technician TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
You too
+1 Reply
tuamen
2 years ago
Hi Technician, Did you get filled on your short trade idea and if so are you still in the trade? We have a bullish daily candle with a close outside the channel and I am curious if this invalidates your short set up or do you have other criteria for risk management. Thanks for posting mate , love your charts and your set-ups.
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Technician TOP tuamen
2 years ago
Thank you tuamen, i haven't shorted yet as there is no confirmation signal on the four-hour interval yet. I will be monitoring developments and update when necessary.
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jangseohee Technician
2 years ago
the upper uptrend channel gotta extend a little bit, change TA according to price action
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Be careful when shorting this pair, the last bullish movement shows a strong momentum upward which doesn't reverse direction immediately, I think bears will be trapped in this one.
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