AUD - Observation. Something is not correct in Pricing.
So, ok, I see USD is the super Bull al around the place. AUDUSD collapsed quickly, and practically reached Key Support at 0,8665 (2014 low). It is bearish on the Daily and 4 Hrs time frame too.
But pls look to the right panel, in which I placed EURAUD Daily chart. And now tell me if the mkt is bearish for EUR??? So something is really not pricing correctly here.
- If mkt believes ECB will start printing, then what the hell is EUR doing here against not just AUD, but e.g. NOK and SEK? If EUR really starts to weaken, this break on EURAUD will be false.
- If ECB starts printing, than global risk-on sentiment should persist, with risky assets and likely commodities up again, so why should AUD suffer this much?
- Don't we have a case of a too strong USD here? I mean ok, if in case ECB disappoints, then fine, EURAUD is on a bullish break, but then EURUSD should move higher too. Still AUDUSD should not go a lot lower from here.
So from any possible sides I look at it, AUD looks a bit too much oversold here, and may find some short term bottom ard 0,8700. Of course the USD itself has been looking too much overbought for some time now. The candle today at Key Resistance will be important. If we do not see a lower low for next 1-2 days, AUDUSD will have a chance for correction possibly up to the 4 Hrs Kumo, or maybe even higher to 0,8950-0,9000 levels.
This also means short term EURAUD to move sideaway between 1,4235 - 1,4535 is not impossible.
Of course we can see the opposite, like a further collapsing AUD on all crosses (vs EUR, USD, etc.), but then something major will hit in too... like China, or global equity hit. Anyway, worths to watch both AUDUSD and global equities.
But pls look to the right panel, in which I placed EURAUD Daily chart. And now tell me if the mkt is bearish for EUR??? So something is really not pricing correctly here.
- If mkt believes ECB will start printing, then what the hell is EUR doing here against not just AUD, but e.g. NOK and SEK? If EUR really starts to weaken, this break on EURAUD will be false.
- If ECB starts printing, than global risk-on sentiment should persist, with risky assets and likely commodities up again, so why should AUD suffer this much?
- Don't we have a case of a too strong USD here? I mean ok, if in case ECB disappoints, then fine, EURAUD is on a bullish break, but then EURUSD should move higher too. Still AUDUSD should not go a lot lower from here.
So from any possible sides I look at it, AUD looks a bit too much oversold here, and may find some short term bottom ard 0,8700. Of course the USD itself has been looking too much overbought for some time now. The candle today at Key Resistance will be important. If we do not see a lower low for next 1-2 days, AUDUSD will have a chance for correction possibly up to the 4 Hrs Kumo, or maybe even higher to 0,8950-0,9000 levels.
This also means short term EURAUD to move sideaway between 1,4235 - 1,4535 is not impossible.
Of course we can see the opposite, like a further collapsing AUD on all crosses (vs EUR, USD, etc.), but then something major will hit in too... like China, or global equity hit. Anyway, worths to watch both AUDUSD and global equities.