7pasos

How to determine the more probable elliott wave count?

FX:EURAUD   Euro Fx/Australian Dollar
556 1 3
How do you know if the price have done a nested 1),2) - 1,2 or a simple 1) 2) (with a more extended pattern, if both lows for wave 2) and 2 ends at the very same level?

Well there are some guides that can be helpfull, in this post we will go through them to try to find which count (black or red) have more chances.

First of all there is the pattern, in this case we will try to discern by the next upside movemet after wave 1) because if it is impulsive should be a nested 1),2) - 1,2. but as we can see, we can not rule out one of this scenarios because both counts are possible, the impulse (as leading diagonal and the reactive as zigzag ).

Then there is the guide of length, wich says that the time traveled to make impulsive waves thend to be lesser than to form corrective patterns. Under this view the chances are greater for the red count that shows the ideal proportion, becaus as you can see, the first impulse was formed by 49 sesions but the first leg down (counted as 2) under the black one) is only 30.

The other guid that will help us (and perhaps be the decisive one) is the channeling if the price thends more to be syncronized with the red channel which proyects from the first high (wave 1) ) the red count is more probable, other way the wave nested (the black count) will be more probable.

Hope this post help you in this and next occurrences with this degree of "mixed signals".

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