Assuming we are in an impulsive up sided wave, the last movement (Micro) could be an ending diagonal that could end at the middle of the actual iii) wave. If this is the case, the normal to expect is a iv) retracement that could end around the previous iv wave (98.50's)
This is a follow up of the last elliott wave analysis published 8 months ago www.tradingview.com
The basic change is in the extended 5th.
The diagonal as we expected did not work due keep the original wave count as originally stated is impossible due now will see the 3rd wave as the shortest. This can't be even in diagonals.
So the best way to update it is by...
The AUDUSD is poised to break below it's support.
The last polls shows 5 times more analyst expecting a rate cut of 25bps for the next April 7th meeting than the previous weeks.
78% chances for rate cut priced by the Mkts (Rtrs).
Even when previously have more preference for the gray wave count, the break below the wave ii (gray) discard this
idea and places more...
Today to "celebrate" the first time in 15 years of the Nasdaq above the 5000 publish this Nasdaq 100 fut. long term wave count
The chart is logarithmic.
We can observe a 5 wave decline from the last peek at 4856 followed for a more slow upward movement that
I can't precise due the lack of historic if its a new impulsive fase or part of something else.
As you could remember during the last Greek crisis the Bund Yield fell even to negative territory, this was due the haven factor in the biggest economy in EZ
Now that every body says that the situation is much better than in the 2012 the Yield (as you can see in brown, remember that the price of Bund is inverse to it's yield) is even lower. Why?
The mail reason...
Mi first scenario is that after an acute rally the USDMXN should take a little break before try to make new highs.
As the channel guide tell us, if the pullback that has started breaks below the channel line, the more probable scenario will be a even longer 5th wave. In contrast if the pullback stops near the bottom line in the channel is more probable a small 5th wave.
If we take a look from 2006 the full view seems very probably we are in a expanded flat.
Actually the decline from 4.6480 seems to be the 1)) wave o a C] wave
The decline have several hints to confirm this view:
Wave 4th has a near to 50% retracement and is in a contractile triangle shape
Wave 5th is the extended one and are near to its 61.8% portion of...
After a elongated rally is not rare to find an ending contractile diagonal.
Usually this create a snap reverse.
Usually this pattern exceeds the 1-3 line when form it's 5th wave
In this scenario the 1 to 1.618% proportion for wave 5)) increases the odds of the turning point.
Now the 4th wave in the EURUSD decline shows what could be a nice example of equivalent to an extension for triangles: a triangle in a triangle.
Could sound confusing but its really simple: When a triangle is forming under elliott wave perspective, some times one of it's waves instead to be a zigzag (the most commonly accepted structure inside it) forms a new...
2 months ago told you I was expecting a decline in the NZDUSD, then a little push higher appeared and did a little bit more diffuse the scenario.
The main problem is because is hard to see a clear 5 patter although is not impossible to count one.
If you consider a very disproportionate expansive triangle for wave iv) then is possible the end of this correction be...
After all the scandal about Herbalife and Ackman talking against this company, from a merely technical stand point of view I must say, can't see why should not look for new highs.
As long as the historic of this chart let's me view, we came from a strong rally, that were severely retraced 76.4% in log scale.
This means that this or is the A or 1 of a structure,...
In this chart i have contrasted 2 ways to count the recent gold's decline.
In blue there is the wave count expressed by the EWI, that went open public in a video released the last week.
In black is my view of the wave count (I hold from at least since year or so that this decline have a very significant 3)rd wave extension)
Both wave counts have the their's weak...
After forming a first down impulsive movement, the price has formed an expanded flat.
You can discard other kind of counts like a zigzag in the first part of the decline because after it's bullish rebound the price descended in a zigzag fashion pattern and there after the price get new highs from the last lows.
After initial pullback that could be deep, this...
At the beginning of the 2008 while the sub prime crisis start to be feared by all the wheat touched peaked, since then until mid 2010 the price dis-inflated severely (lost around 65% at the time from the $1320’s to a very better $480’s the contract.
But as the recovery geared traction from 2010 it reduced the lost of price more than half when made at end of 2012...
As you can see in this elliott wave count, since 2009 an structure that presumably could be an zigzag due the small retracement after the first five was completed, had been developing.
The complex part is the C)) wave which is forming as a diagonal.
There are several possibilities for the count of this last piece, but any of them lead a down side movement.
In perfect concordance with the final channel if we count this movement as a wave 5)) an impulse with its 5) extended we can assume that the actual decline phase could be the first wave reactive to the last rally started since 0.8129 and now we can expect be around this area for the next few weeks because the nature of this correction due the alternance guideline...