Wave 3 of iii Potential - Jan 19 Low is critical

FX:EURAUD   Euro / Australian Dollar
885 9 18
For those intimate with Elliott Wave counting, check out this chart.

The EUR/USD             and AUD/USD             have been diverging in price over the past few days creating some large moves in the EUR/AUD             cross pair. The Elliott Wave picture has a wave count that suggests a wave 3 of iii             underway from the Jan 19 low. If this is the case, then prices are likely to aggressively climb higher.

A drop below the Jan 19 low does not negate the bullish counts, but does hamper how I have the .1 and .2 labeled.

The pair was highlighted in a published article 2 weeks ago - you can view it here for a refresher.

Best of luck and happy trading!
Comment: The intensity of this scent diminished on a poke below the Jan 19 low. What smelled like a wave .iii ended up being the scent of a 'b' wave or something else.

This 1.53 handle is a potential support area. Below there, we may see support at 1.51 but the odds are quickly shifting that Dec 3 - Jan 15 was a zig zag.

Bottom line, might be a small sized long trade in the 1.53 handle in a last gasp effort on wave .iii. Otherwise I'll need to see resistance levels break to get me smelling wave .iii again.
Big Cup with Handle pattern.
+1 Reply
Nice one Yahia - it looks like handle has formed on an upward retracement that barely travelled 50% the distance of the left side of the down move (2008-2012). Not a favorable pattern in this scenario as I would like to see that handle form a little higher on the right side of the cup.
tnx a lot
do you think wave {III} may be extend?
Typically it does. On the move above 1.5865, I thought that was the trigger to an extended wave. As it stands now, that was a false break or possibly a 'b' wave under the bullish interpretation.
AnandYRaja JWagnerFXTrader
I was looking at this on the daily

and this on the 4hr
I was looking at a similar count. However, I am also keeping this count as an alternative.
+1 Reply
I like this idea of a "B" wave triangle. I would assess it slightly differently in that we are still working through the circle C of the triangle. Triangles can be tough to identify early on so we'll need to place this on the back burner and revisit it in a few months to see if it is still plausible.
Good catch - total rejection at the RSI trend line.
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