JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader

ETHBTC overshot the target we outlined a few weeks back. This recent uptrend looks like an extended 5th of a 5th. I do believe ETH will outperform over the long run, but this chart has me leaning towards BTC outperformance initially. The 618 retracement near .043 would be a reasonable retracement such that if ETHBTC made it that low, a good value play could be...

JWagnerFXTrader

2 Simple items to point out on this chart. First, at today's low, Bitcoin was the closest it has come to its 200 day Simple Moving Average since the halving last May 2020. At today's low, bitcoin was a mere 5% higher than the moving average. In a bull trend, the 200 SMA is considered longer-term support. The 200 SMA is near $39-40k now. Secondly, there is a...

JWagnerFXTrader

From the April 23 low, USDJPY appears to have hammered out an Elliott Wave impulse higher. This suggests that after a temporary dip, USDJPY is highly likely to resume this trend higher. Harmonic analysis suggests the floor is in for USDJPY or may be found with one more small dip. The key level is the April 23 low of 107.47. The meat of the trend would carry to...

JWagnerFXTrader

Bitcoin has hit some turbulence recently, but the price chart is firmly planted to the bullish side. First, price is contained within this upward sloping price channel. The support line of this price channel arrives near $49,400 Secondly, the daily Ichimoku Cloud is supporting pricing. A more conservative approach using Ichimoku is waiting for the lagging line...

JWagnerFXTrader

ETH found support at the 61.8% retracement of the previous uptrend. The previous uptrend can be counted as an impulse wave. This suggests that ETH may continue to motor higher above .046 possibly to .06. Performing some simple math...IF BTC holds at 60k, then .06 ETH/BTC rate implies $3,600 ETHUSD. With crypto solidly in an uptrend, this pattern suggests...

JWagnerFXTrader

For the month of March, bitcoin has been carving out this upward sloping price channel. The recent price action for bitcoin suggests a retest of the support trend line is coming. How prices behave from this support trend line will say a lot about the digital asset. Prices meaningfully bounce at support (green arrow) - under this scenario, bitcoin likely...

JWagnerFXTrader

Bitcoin's little brother Ethereum has found some support. Analyzing ETH priced in BTC allows us to see which trend may be stronger. If ETHBTC is rising, then ETH is getting stronger than BTC. This could be the result of: If BTC is in an uptrend, then ETH is in a strong uptrend If BTC is in a downtrend, then ETH's downtrend is not as strong OR ETH is in an...

JWagnerFXTrader

I can count a completed bullish impulse wave for NZDUSD. This implies a correction lower to at least .66 and possibly lower levels. The structure of the decline will help us determine if Kiwi falls further to 61.8% retracement or whether the 38.2% retracement holds.

JWagnerFXTrader

Looking at EURJPY, it appears the advance from the May 2020 low is wave D of a triangle in Elliott Wave terms. Zooming in, this wave D would be more than half way there. Measuring out the harmonics, its appears a reaction may take place in the 132-134 price zone if EURJPY makes it that high. This doesn't mean that prices HAVE to make it to this zone or that...

JWagnerFXTrader

Nasdaq (NDX) is at an interesting spot on the chart. From an Elliott wave perspective, a bearish and bullish count can be identified. The near term movements in NDX may eliminate one of the counts leaving us with a preferred Elliott wave count and forecast. The green count and arrow reflects a bullish wave structure to implies a retest of new highs. Some wave...

JWagnerFXTrader

Though silver prices have rallied, the longer-term trend is pointed lower. Using Elliott Wave Theory as our guide, silver has been declining in impulse waves and rallying in corrective waves. Silver may be in a small degree wave ii higher. There are wave relationships and the underside of the purple price channel hovering near $27. We'll likely see some type...

JWagnerFXTrader

Using Elliott Wave as our guide, EURUSD appears to be entering the belly of the down trend and correction. There are wave relationships near the current price so a bounce may develop. As we are in a bearish impulse wave pattern, if this bounce develops, I am looking at the bounce as being wave iv of (iii). I anticipate the bounce will be shallow and EURUSD...

JWagnerFXTrader

Using Elliott Wave Theory as our guide, the recent weakness in GBPUSD is pushing it below the (ii)-(iv) support trend line. This is a bearish symptom that suggests a near term top has carved. Additionally, a wedge of this nature appears to be an ending diagonal. Ending diagonal's tend to fully retrace which means this market is ripe for a correction back to...

JWagnerFXTrader

This trendline in SP500 would be a cause to pause before getting bulled up. A test of the underside of the line seems appropriate. Good news for bulls is that the Jan 26-29 sell off appears to be an Elliott Wave zigzag pattern. This gives the market a higher probability of reaching another new high. Perhaps it meets the trend line in new high territory?

JWagnerFXTrader

A clearly defined price trend channel has been shaping technology prices since the 2009 bottom. $NDX recently broke above the price channel in an overshoot. Overthrow's of the channel are common and can suggest prices have come too far. Couple that signal with the fact that $NDX rang new highs while its brother, $DJI did not. The September correction merely...

JWagnerFXTrader

Though Paypal now has Bitcoin as wind to its back, the price chart is facing some headwinds. The 7 wave up trend is a corrective wave "B" wave in Elliott wave terms (it would be labeled w-x-y). This implies a retest of the $170 low. If prices don't cut towards $170, then this may be the "B" wave of a triangle. Either way, the presure will remain to the...

JWagnerFXTrader

Love it or hate it...Bitcoin's price chart suggests a better buying opportunity may be on the horizon. The position of this triangle and the tap of the upper price channel line suggests this market is poised for a correction. Most of the time when a double zigzag like this appears to start a new trend, the entire pattern is completely retraced. Be on the...

JWagnerFXTrader

DXY has room to run higher. The Elliott wave pattern suggests we are in a third of a third higher . If so, then DXY should continue a trend towards strength. There is an orange trendline formed over calendar year 2020 in the way. Breaking above the orange trend line is a sign of strength. Failure at the orange trend line or failure below 93.33 will bring...