JWagnerFXTrader

PRO
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About me Certified Elliott Wave Analyst (CEWA-M). Elliott Wave trader. Life is a test, life is a trust, life is a temporary assignment - Purpose Driven Life (Risk Warning-> http://www.dailyfx.com/page/risk_warning.html )
Joined Plano, TX JWagnerFXTrader
Markets Allocation
84 % forex 1 % cryptocurrency 15 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 32% | 29 GBPUSD 11% | 10 USDJPY 8% | 8 XAUUSD 7% | 7
JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO BTCUSD, 60,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Bounces in Apparent Corrective Waveform
253 0 4
BTCUSD, 60
Bitcoin Bounces in Apparent Corrective Waveform

Last week's low generated a lower low so now we can apply some technical analysis to pick up some clues. It appears the bounce beginning Dec 22 is in zigzag form. Most Elliott Wave zigag patterns at this point are considered corrective and hints at a 11,500 or possibly 10,000 retest. There is a small chance this is the beginning of a diagonal which is short ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: Elliott Wave Impulse Nears End of 4th Wave
514 8 13
EURUSD, D Long
Elliott Wave Impulse Nears End of 4th Wave

The Elliott Wave model we have been following is that EURUSD is incomplete to the upside. In our September 4 report, we forecasted a "shallow correction back to the 1.16 handle." Now that prices have reached that level, it confirms the fourth wave is progressing as anticipated. We still are not sure of the shape, depth, and structure as we have 2 options listed ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO GBPUSD, 240,
GBPUSD: Cable Up Trend is Mature; Could BOE Cause a Reversal?
354 0 11
GBPUSD, 240
Cable Up Trend is Mature; Could BOE Cause a Reversal?

Here we see an Elliott Wave count for GBPUSD. The market appears to be in a terminal wave at multiple degrees of trend. Once the minor 5 wave impulse higher completes (we appear to beginning iv now), then the market will be at risk of reversal. There are other wave relationships appearing in the 1.3450 price zone. I don't know if it will get that high, but a ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO USDCAD, 60,
USDCAD: USDCAD May Be Supported on Dips - For Now
313 0 19
USDCAD, 60
USDCAD May Be Supported on Dips - For Now

USDCAD Elliott Wave pattern looks incomplete to the upside. We are anticipating dips may be supported as the 5 wave impulse finishes to the upside. Once the 5 waves are in place, then we will be anticipating a longer term top that could set up a large short trade (that is another post for another day). For now, let's track the impulse higher. It appears we are ...

USOIL: Crude Oil - Inverse H & S (52.60-.90 Key)
337 2 9
USOIL, D
Crude Oil - Inverse H & S (52.60-.90 Key)

Crude oil is approaching the neckline of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. If this pattern plays out, it suggest much higher prices for crude. When you consider that the Greenback has been mildly strong lately AND crude has advanced at the same time, this suggests some bullish undertones building below the surface. The Elliott Wave picture looks ...

DJI: Warning Lights Flashing on DJIA
165 0 5
DJI, 120
Warning Lights Flashing on DJIA

Warning lights are flashing trouble ahead for DJIA. A move below the October 7 low would also punch below the blue support line and hint at further losses towards 17,000. As an aside, I am also watching a potential Elliott Wave triangle which we are in the 'D' leg. This would suggest another bump higher that holds below 18,450 followed by an aggressive dump in ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO USDJPY, 120, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY Dip in an Uptrend - Watch 103.50-104.63
616 1 24
USDJPY, 120 Long
USDJPY Dip in an Uptrend - Watch 103.50-104.63

USDJPY appears to be putting in the finishing touches to a corrective move lower. We can see an elliott wave impulsive move higher followed by what appears to be an a-b-c expanded flat correction. We can use wave measurements to gauge higher probability areas where blue wave 'c' may terminate. 3 areas I'm watching: 104.63 = wave 'a' low 103.90 = 38.2% ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO US30, D, Long ,
US30: US Equities Trading Plan Post Brexit Vote - 15,503 Key Level
323 0 16
US30, D Long
US Equities Trading Plan Post Brexit Vote - 15,503 Key Level

Yesterday, DJIA dropped into a potential reversal zone. This sets up a long opportunity and allows us to maintain a bullish bias. The 5 wave move from Feb 11 to April 20 allows us to maintain the bullish bias as only 50% of the uptrend has been retraced...that is after what is supposed to be a bearish outcome to the Brexit vote! This suggests that the ultimate ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO EURUSD, 120,
EURUSD: EURUSD at a Crossroads - 1.11 key level
830 2 19
EURUSD, 120
EURUSD at a Crossroads - 1.11 key level

We have been tracking a potential ending diagonal pattern in EURUSD that suggests a retest of 1.17. This Elliott Wave pattern is running out of real estate to the downside to still remain valid. Therefore, if it is going to remain valid, prices will need to rally soon. As it stands, the labels I'm following currently place us in wave (b) of ((v)) in the ending ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO AUDUSD, 120,
AUDUSD: Key Levels to Watch During RBA Announcement - 7400 & 7575
571 1 19
AUDUSD, 120
Key Levels to Watch During RBA Announcement - 7400 & 7575

In about 3-4 hours, the Reserve Bank of Australia brings their latest round of monetary policy to the market with their rate announcement. The expectation is for the rate to hold steady. We don't know how the market is going to react so let's establish a game plan prior to the release. Checking in with the Elliott Wave analysis, it appears as though a longer ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO EURUSD, 60, Long ,
EURUSD: Bulls still in control above 1.1050
375 4 11
EURUSD, 60 Long
Bulls still in control above 1.1050

This is a shorter term look a few hours in advance of the ECB meeting Thurs morning and NFP Friday morning. For the medium term look, see the 4 hour chart on the link below. Bottom line, Elliott wave counts still point to higher levels. Below 1.1150 to 1.1050 the bullish view is stressed but still alive. I can stuff a bearish count into the picture, but 1.1250 ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO EURGBP, 240, Long ,
EURGBP: EURGBP Hot Spot -- On top of several wave relationships
1301 16 34
EURGBP, 240 Long
EURGBP Hot Spot -- On top of several wave relationships

EURGBP appears to be finishing a move lower as the pair plows into a cluster of wave relationships. It appears to be close to finishing wave 4 (w-x-y). That wave count suggests a 5 wave move higher that could reach .8150. When you draw a trend line connecting the end of wave 1 & 3, then duplicate that line to the end of wave 2 to obtain an approximate area for ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO EURUSD, 240, Long ,
EURUSD: Final Leg of Diagonal Pattern - 1.1050 Key Level
1206 11 26
EURUSD, 240 Long
Final Leg of Diagonal Pattern - 1.1050 Key Level

With the Fed beating the drum of rate increases, many are looking for the Greenback to fundamentally strengthen. Though when and if the Fed actually increases rates is a debate for another day, let's look at the technical picture for EURUSD. It appears we are finalizing the 4th wave of a 5 wave diagonal pattern. We're looking for this 4th wave to terminate in ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO EURUSD, 240,
EURUSD: EUR/USD 1.1140 Key Level for Bulls
577 2 11
EURUSD, 240
EUR/USD 1.1140 Key Level for Bulls

With the ECB event risk Thursday morning, let's take a step back and see what the higher probability patterns are. The preferred patterns being watched are bullish in nature. Both bullish patterns suggest we are in the 'C' wave of a large flat correction that began in March 2015. The March 24 low is the key level for the immediate bullish price action. A ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO EURUSD, 120, Long ,
EURUSD: EURUSD Enters Support Zone - 1.0982 Key Level
923 0 18
EURUSD, 120 Long
EURUSD Enters Support Zone - 1.0982 Key Level

The break above 1.1087 on Feb 3 eliminated the bearish impulse and left us with higher probability patterns of: *A 5 wave move higher beginning Dec 2015 that likely overcomes 1.1720 (bullish) *A bearish diagonal such that last week's 1.1376 high was wave 2 of the diagonal (near term bearish to below 1.0517) Though prices have sold off 200+ pips from last week, ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO EURUSD, 120, Short ,
EURUSD: Triangle Finished?  At Support Now
1513 15 21
EURUSD, 120 Short
Triangle Finished? At Support Now

In yesterday's webinar for the TradingView community, we talked about the EURUSD in the current market environment. (see the video clip from the 1:26:07 - 1:27:45 mark -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jE31mbhpDk&feature=youtu.be&a ) It appears as though the pair has finished a blue 'b' wave triangle and we are thrusting lower in the 'c' leg of a zig zag. ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO GBPJPY, 120, Short ,
GBPJPY: GBPJPY Tags Measured Waves - Higher Probability of Sell Off
1113 6 19
GBPJPY, 120 Short
GBPJPY Tags Measured Waves - Higher Probability of Sell Off

Last night, the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates which made for a weaker Yen driving the GBPJPY higher. Last week, we anticipated a move up to the 174 region and now that we are there AND we have the BOJ driving negative interest rates, do we continue higher or is this it? When assessing the intraday charts, there is a strong confluence of wave ...

JWagnerFXTrader JWagnerFXTrader PRO NZDUSD, D, Short ,
NZDUSD: Kiwi Prepares For Double Dose of Central Banks - 6700 Key Level
1175 9 17
NZDUSD, D Short
Kiwi Prepares For Double Dose of Central Banks - 6700 Key Level

On Wednesday afternoon (or Thursday morning in the Eastern part of the world), we have 2 central bank rate announcements within a couple hours time; 1) FOMC, 2) RBNZ.. This post is meant to assess the wave patterns prior to the news with key levels in focus. The bigger picture pattern we've been tracking is a W-X-Y dating back to 2011. This is a big pattern to ...

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