JWagnerFXTrader

Last week's low generated a lower low so now we can apply some technical analysis to pick up some clues. It appears the bounce beginning Dec 22 is in zigzag form. Most Elliott Wave zigag patterns at this point are considered corrective and hints at a 11,500 or possibly 10,000 retest. There is a small chance this is the beginning of a diagonal which is short...

The Elliott Wave model we have been following is that EURUSD is incomplete to the upside. In our September 4 report, we forecasted a "shallow correction back to the 1.16 handle." Now that prices have reached that level, it confirms the fourth wave is progressing as anticipated. We still are not sure of the shape, depth, and structure as we have 2 options listed...

Here we see an Elliott Wave count for GBPUSD. The market appears to be in a terminal wave at multiple degrees of trend. Once the minor 5 wave impulse higher completes (we appear to beginning iv now), then the market will be at risk of reversal. There are other wave relationships appearing in the 1.3450 price zone. I don't know if it will get that high, but a...

USDCAD Elliott Wave pattern looks incomplete to the upside. We are anticipating dips may be supported as the 5 wave impulse finishes to the upside. Once the 5 waves are in place, then we will be anticipating a longer term top that could set up a large short trade (that is another post for another day). For now, let's track the impulse higher. It appears we are...

Crude oil is approaching the neckline of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. If this pattern plays out, it suggest much higher prices for crude. When you consider that the Greenback has been mildly strong lately AND crude has advanced at the same time, this suggests some bullish undertones building below the surface. The Elliott Wave picture looks...

Warning lights are flashing trouble ahead for DJIA. A move below the October 7 low would also punch below the blue support line and hint at further losses towards 17,000. As an aside, I am also watching a potential Elliott Wave triangle which we are in the 'D' leg. This would suggest another bump higher that holds below 18,450 followed by an aggressive dump in...

USDJPY appears to be putting in the finishing touches to a corrective move lower. We can see an elliott wave impulsive move higher followed by what appears to be an a-b-c expanded flat correction. We can use wave measurements to gauge higher probability areas where blue wave 'c' may terminate. 3 areas I'm watching: 104.63 = wave 'a' low 103.90 = 38.2%...

Yesterday, DJIA dropped into a potential reversal zone. This sets up a long opportunity and allows us to maintain a bullish bias. The 5 wave move from Feb 11 to April 20 allows us to maintain the bullish bias as only 50% of the uptrend has been retraced...that is after what is supposed to be a bearish outcome to the Brexit vote! This suggests that the ultimate...

We have been tracking a potential ending diagonal pattern in EURUSD that suggests a retest of 1.17. This Elliott Wave pattern is running out of real estate to the downside to still remain valid. Therefore, if it is going to remain valid, prices will need to rally soon. As it stands, the labels I'm following currently place us in wave (b) of ((v)) in the ending...

In about 3-4 hours, the Reserve Bank of Australia brings their latest round of monetary policy to the market with their rate announcement. The expectation is for the rate to hold steady. We don't know how the market is going to react so let's establish a game plan prior to the release. Checking in with the Elliott Wave analysis, it appears as though a longer...

This is a shorter term look a few hours in advance of the ECB meeting Thurs morning and NFP Friday morning. For the medium term look, see the 4 hour chart on the link below. Bottom line, Elliott wave counts still point to higher levels. Below 1.1150 to 1.1050 the bullish view is stressed but still alive. I can stuff a bearish count into the picture, but 1.1250...

EURGBP appears to be finishing a move lower as the pair plows into a cluster of wave relationships. It appears to be close to finishing wave 4 (w-x-y). That wave count suggests a 5 wave move higher that could reach .8150. When you draw a trend line connecting the end of wave 1 & 3, then duplicate that line to the end of wave 2 to obtain an approximate area for...

With the Fed beating the drum of rate increases, many are looking for the Greenback to fundamentally strengthen. Though when and if the Fed actually increases rates is a debate for another day, let's look at the technical picture for EURUSD. It appears we are finalizing the 4th wave of a 5 wave diagonal pattern. We're looking for this 4th wave to terminate in...

With the ECB event risk Thursday morning, let's take a step back and see what the higher probability patterns are. The preferred patterns being watched are bullish in nature. Both bullish patterns suggest we are in the 'C' wave of a large flat correction that began in March 2015. The March 24 low is the key level for the immediate bullish price action. A...

The break above 1.1087 on Feb 3 eliminated the bearish impulse and left us with higher probability patterns of: *A 5 wave move higher beginning Dec 2015 that likely overcomes 1.1720 (bullish) *A bearish diagonal such that last week's 1.1376 high was wave 2 of the diagonal (near term bearish to below 1.0517) Though prices have sold off 200+ pips from last week,...

In yesterday's webinar for the TradingView community, we talked about the EURUSD in the current market environment. (see the video clip from the 1:26:07 - 1:27:45 mark -> www.youtube.com ) It appears as though the pair has finished a blue 'b' wave triangle and we are thrusting lower in the 'c' leg of a zig zag. ...

Last night, the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates which made for a weaker Yen driving the GBPJPY higher. Last week, we anticipated a move up to the 174 region and now that we are there AND we have the BOJ driving negative interest rates, do we continue higher or is this it? When assessing the intraday charts, there is a strong confluence of wave...

On Wednesday afternoon (or Thursday morning in the Eastern part of the world), we have 2 central bank rate announcements within a couple hours time; 1) FOMC, 2) RBNZ.. This post is meant to assess the wave patterns prior to the news with key levels in focus. The bigger picture pattern we've been tracking is a W-X-Y dating back to 2011. This is a big pattern to...