German business confidence deteriorated to a six-month low

Looking at the chart on the weekly time frame, we see one big uptrend from 2014 with a certain pullback this making one big channel. In that channel, as we can see, the moving average of the MA200 (purple line) is very important, and as we can see, when the EUR/AUD pair fell below, it took a little time, and it quickly returned above the MA200. We can also expect the couple to test 1.55000 psychological level and support on the bottom trend line.

We can see how strong the bearish trend is and how the EUR/AUD pair is moving on the daily time frame. Below we have the blue trend line of the long-term trend from 2014, and we can expect a big resistance there at 1.55000 before jumping to higher levels. Moving averages are above the values on the chart and are currently on the bearish side. For the bullish scenario, we need a break above MA20 first, then MA50, to have at least some confirmation of a potential bullish reversal.

We see a falling channel forming with a certain pullback within that channel in the four-hour time frame. The EUR/AUD pair has so far made a break above the MA20 and MA50 and are currently testing the MA100, the sequel above us pushing up to the MA200 at 1.59000. If the EUR/AUD pair fails and bounces off the MA100, we will drop to 1.55000.

From the news for today, we can single out the following for this couple: German business confidence deteriorated to a six-month low in January because the second wave of coronavirus stopped the recovery, the results of the Munich research IFO Institute showed on Monday.

The business confidence index fell more than expected to 90.1 in January from a revised 92.2 in the previous month. The result was forecast to fall moderately to 91.8. The reading was the lowest since July 2020. The companies assessed their current situation worse than last month, and their expectations were even more pessimistic.

Australia’s trade surplus widened in December as exports rose monthly amid falling imports, preliminary estimates by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. For the calendar year 2020, exports were 7 percent lower than in 2019, and imports fell by 5 percent compared to last year.