We have massive momentum divergence on the H4 (and replicated on the D1 as of Friday), plus Index divergence as buyers slowly exit the market.
Big falls are often preceded by a last gasp burst (potentially to the Monthly R3), so I'm keeping an eye out for that before shorting EA .
This trade lines up in a lot of ways, as the overall trend of the EUR/AUD is down over the last year or so. But, as always, we have to wait for clear confirmation. You're better off sacrificing some profit rather than getting in on a bad trade.
Check out the Weekly chart for further indication that we should be looking for a down movement:
I'm still expecting it to rise and challenge the yearly R4 at 1.6000, but it's worth keeping an eye on for further falls. The expected weakness may have hit sooner.
Trading is never an exact science :)