3400 Pip #EURCAD Target

FX:EURCAD   Euro / Canadian Dollar
I believe the EURCAD             is starting a wave 3 of C down with a target of 1.100 on the weekly chart. The invalidation point is the top of wave 2 at 1.4885
Comment: With the latest move up the pair could be in a wave ii of a nested 1,2 - i,ii of the red 3.

An alternate count would be that this move is wave C up of the red 2. The move up from 1.42641 does look impulsive so would not rule it out until the 1.42641 low is broken.

Comment: This move up does not look as impulsive as I thought looking at the 4 hr chart. It could still be playing out in a leading diagonal. Another thought is the pair could be doing a WXY rather than ABC so the move up from 1.42641 would not have to be impulsive.

I am just going to watch it play out, if it gets to 1.5200 to 1.5400 I will add to my short. If it breaks 1.42641 I will add to my shorts...
Comment: We are getting close to taking out the nested 1-2 options here. Was hoping for a shallow red wave 2 but looks like the normal 50 to 61.8 retrace will happen.
Comment: One more high and this leg should be complete with divergence. I think the round number of 1.500 should hold thing down. The RSI should have some nice Divergence by then so I will be looking to short the 1.500.

The first target down on the short would be the 1.4600 area and I will see what the move down looks like at that point. There is always the chance that c of 2 completes at the 1.500. This is also the area of the previous wave 4.

Comment: Starting to make some progress on that red wave 3..still looking for 1.100 down.

Comment: Here is a look at a possible 1 hr count. The top count is showing wave {I} still in progress with red waves 4 and 5 to go. the ALT is a nested 1*2 with {II} possibly in progress.

If the RSI holds with the triangle lines then I would expect a nice bounce following a new low with divergence. If it breaks the down trend line but holds the 60 then I would expect a strong move down in a wave iii of 3.

Comment: The bounce off of the 1.4181 looks to be another 2nd wave. The next move down will be a 3 of III and should be strong.

Is this still valid ?
It is valid until 1.48.85 is broken but I think what is labeled as 2 is actual A of 2 and the last move down was b and C up now. I will post new chart with that count.
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