The Canadian dollar: the Core Retail Sales report

Looking at the chart on the weekly time frame, we see a bullish trend throughout this year with certain pullbacks and the support of moving averages MA50, MA100, and MA200. The EUR/CAD pair tested the zone around 1.6000 twice, and now there is a possibility that it will climb to that zone for the third time. For now, the lower side of the zone around 1.55000 gives solid support to the Euro.

We can think for the bearish scenario if the pair falls below 1.55000 and if we then see a break with confirmation candlesticks on a smaller time frame.

On the daily time frame, we see that the EUR/CAD pair is moving in the side channel between 1.5400-1.5700. At the bottom, we have strong support for the moving average MA200, while at the top, we have resistance to 1.57000. We have a strong bullish trend on a larger time frame so that we can look at this as consolidation before some stronger momentum. To continue above, we are waiting for a break above 1.5700.

We see that the EUR/CAD pair found good support at 1.54000 and bounced up from that zone on the four-hour team frame. From the support of all three moving averages, it goes to 1.57000, where we can expect resistance again. To continue the bullish trend, we need a break above that zone to 1.57500 so that then there is a possibility for consolidation and then up to higher levels towards 1.60000.

Otherwise, if we don’t see a break, we can expect the pair to retreat to lower levels around 1.54000 again. From the economic news today, we will single out the following for the Canadian dollar: the Core Retail Sales report, The New Housing Price Index (CPI), and the Budget Balance.