EURCHF - If there is global risk on, why not to sell CHF?
If there is such a global risk-on mood, CHF should weaken.
Daily: First of all there is the floor set by SNB at 1,2000. They announced a couple of times they have no intention to release it any time soon. Anyway, if you look at both daily and 4 Hrs charts, it is clear that "someone" always keeeps it bid at 1,2050-55 since the end of August 2014.
There is a massive positive divergence in MACD, also Slow Stoch is up.
Ichimoku is still bearish, but a Kumo, Kijun Sen and bearish trendline retest to 1,2100+ level is really possible. In case Price breaks through 1,2100 it will have the chance for further bullish extension, but for now we can not be sure about this.
The carry for holding the position is flat (maybe slight positive), and you can place a stop either below 1,2049 or ultimately to/below the floor at 1,2000.
4 Hrs: Seems like a breakout finally from the tightenning triangle consolidation zone, with DMI also turning bullish. On next spike it can attack 100 WMA and a very thin Kumo. You can already start to buy it on small dips below 1,2060 but the real entry signal would be a break and close above 1,2067. Risk/reward with a stop at 1,2049 will come as 1:2
p.s.: please note that recent candles are very small, the ATR is extremely low. This means that in fact EURCHF has not been moving at all, te price is for choice 1,2060 +/-. In case you put on a position, you have to consider this lack of volatility. Such a low ATR (less volatility) allows you to add a much larger notional position when you open it.
Daily: First of all there is the floor set by SNB at 1,2000. They announced a couple of times they have no intention to release it any time soon. Anyway, if you look at both daily and 4 Hrs charts, it is clear that "someone" always keeeps it bid at 1,2050-55 since the end of August 2014.
There is a massive positive divergence in MACD, also Slow Stoch is up.
Ichimoku is still bearish, but a Kumo, Kijun Sen and bearish trendline retest to 1,2100+ level is really possible. In case Price breaks through 1,2100 it will have the chance for further bullish extension, but for now we can not be sure about this.
The carry for holding the position is flat (maybe slight positive), and you can place a stop either below 1,2049 or ultimately to/below the floor at 1,2000.
4 Hrs: Seems like a breakout finally from the tightenning triangle consolidation zone, with DMI also turning bullish. On next spike it can attack 100 WMA and a very thin Kumo. You can already start to buy it on small dips below 1,2060 but the real entry signal would be a break and close above 1,2067. Risk/reward with a stop at 1,2049 will come as 1:2
p.s.: please note that recent candles are very small, the ATR is extremely low. This means that in fact EURCHF has not been moving at all, te price is for choice 1,2060 +/-. In case you put on a position, you have to consider this lack of volatility. Such a low ATR (less volatility) allows you to add a much larger notional position when you open it.
