This is a bit of a counter trend trade, but I've had a number of signals indicate EURCHF is due for a correction. My risk/reward if fairly large here. I'm predicting only a ~100 pip short target, but in my opinion, this is a fairly conservative target. I will revisit this if my take profit is hit to determine if a longer term sell is likely.
Position open at 1.15450
Stop Loss at 1.15860
Take Profit at 1.14085
I will add a link to a closer look at this to review why I came to this conclusion.
Thank you for looking.
Position open at 1.15450
Stop Loss at 1.15860
Take Profit at 1.14085
I will add a link to a closer look at this to review why I came to this conclusion.
Thank you for looking.
Trade active:
RSI and Fib levels:
The first obvious sign of a reversal is the large divergence between the last higher-high and this recent higher-high. It's easier to see on a larger chart, but I've indicated it in dark-orange on the RSI and chart. Given this is a daily chart, the divergence has some significance.
I've taken an extension/retracement off the recent low-to-highs and found the top of this higher-high is near the 1.414 (red) and below the 1.618 (blue), which are high percentage levels for a reversal. It's also an exit point on an advanced pattern, which I'll go into more detail below.
RSI and Fib levels:
The first obvious sign of a reversal is the large divergence between the last higher-high and this recent higher-high. It's easier to see on a larger chart, but I've indicated it in dark-orange on the RSI and chart. Given this is a daily chart, the divergence has some significance.
I've taken an extension/retracement off the recent low-to-highs and found the top of this higher-high is near the 1.414 (red) and below the 1.618 (blue), which are high percentage levels for a reversal. It's also an exit point on an advanced pattern, which I'll go into more detail below.
Trade closed: stop reached:
All that for nothing. This one didn't work out. Stop hit.
I'm not a huge fan of how the Gartley/cypher patterns work on Trading View. When I create a pattern, I take the wick to wick on XA, AB, etc... but I judge the end points by where the body of the candle closes, rather than the wick. Anyway, the pattern above doesn't represent the ratios I calculated, but at least you can see what I'm looking at in general.
My X to A candle closes between 0.618 and 0.7786. My A to B closes between 0.5 and 0.618. and my D closes in my ballpark 1.272 1.618 zone. Not perfect, but within an acceptable range, when considering the divergence mentioned previously.
Anyway- all this being said, I'm confident in this trade (as you can see by my relatively tight stop loss). You may be more or less risk adverse and should alter your trade accordingly, depending on your trading style, if you like this idea.