JWagnerFXTrader
Long

EURGBP Hot Spot -- On top of several wave relationships

FX:EURGBP   Euro / British Pound
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EURGBP appears to be finishing a move lower as the pair plows into a cluster of wave relationships. It appears to be close to finishing wave 4 ( w-x-y ). That wave count suggests a 5 wave move higher that could reach .8150.

When you draw a trend line connecting the end of wave 1 & 3, then duplicate that line to the end of wave 2 to obtain an approximate area for wave 4.

Also, if you draw a trend channel within circle wave 'y' (grey trend line ), the equal wave measurement appears near 7560 which was tagged Wednesday morning.

EURGBP may bounce around here a little, but the point is this move lower appears mature. The top of wave 1 is the risk to the trade, so a stop loss could be placed near .7490.

Couple this idea with the EURUSD post from earlier this week which also appears to have some bullish potential.

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There are a lot of Elliott Wave relationships taking place on this pair. I welcome your questions on EW.

Best of luck!
Comment: EURGBP is approaching the grey trend line. ECB hits the wires tomorrow morning. The move from May 30 looks impulsive. Therefore, the grey trend line may provide temporary resistance, but considering a buy the dip strategy.

Comment: Top side attack on the trend channel. This 7750 low from today is another hot spot to define for bulls. Positive risk to reward ratio from near current levels.

Thank you again!
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Agree on the direction but count was unclear to me (based my wave 3 on weekly structure and MACD top...):

Close to down trendline now, maybe tomorrow..., curious to see if it breaks or bounces... Also back at H&S neckline...

Possible wave 5 (if my bullish count is correct) and/or cypher if we break to the upside..., to the downside possible 3 drives pattern and/or wedge...
That's how I see it for now.
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Ok - so that move from neckline to your wave 3 I struggled with a lot. I can't stuff a 5 wave motive into it. Therefore, when what is obvious, it must some some type of '3'. I'm clocking it as a double zigzag. Anyway, I have wave 3 ending where your left shoulder is making everything to the right a correction.
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KVE JWagnerFXTrader
You're right about that last up move to my head, it was also unclear to me on this TF..., so I figured I'd just take the higher TF most likely top, also because the correction needed to be more substantial than what we saw within the H&S pattern, based on the weekly I would say either ABC and wave 4 finished (chanelling suggests that but is often wrong...) and we get a 5 now or it was just ABC of W... and we get a large flat or triangle (wave 2 was sharp...) with a 5 much further in time (possible harmonic pattern...):


But that's just my thoughts, as said, technically your conclusion is probably the only one that fits the structure best!

Allthough, an alternate count for the daily TF is leading diagonal (1) of circled 3..., but that looks far fetched.... and would mean a massive move is to come...


Anyway, thanks alot for your reply, I still have alot to learn so it's great to share idea's like this!
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Regarding your comment "and we get a 5 now or it was just ABC of W"

I think it is wave 5 now because when you draw a trend line connecting the top of waves 1 & 3, then duplicate that line to the end of wave 2. Ok, so price action pierced that duplicated trend line so it is behaving like a wave 4. If price was supported and didn't quite reach the trend line, the it elevates the potential that the sell off was the first of a complex correction. Additionally, the move higher is appearing like a motive wave which is what we need in wave 5 as well.
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KVE JWagnerFXTrader
Thanks, supports the wave 5 idea then, as in my initial weekly count! This recent up move indeed looks motive. We broke above the ABC trendline also!
Price now back above the MA(100) as well and well on the way to the upper BB...

I'll be watching the possible Cypher around 0.8000 now...
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in my opinion, this a long term buy position if everything goes well, there is considerable weekness in the Pound at the moment and if you closely with 2-3 weeks back, there is a double top formation in the 4 hour time frame for gbpusd, so we buy this
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Yes, I agree GBPUSD is still structurally weak, though it may trade up to 1.45 before continuing that weakness. Today's low in GBPUSD tagged a 1.618 extension which could be a small degree 3rd wave or c wave. Either way, the higher probability move is pressure back up to 1.45.

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Thank you!
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Your welcome Learner...good luck.
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