$EURGBP - H4 Chart:
Instead, it represents my own interpretation based on a preceding interest in occult market geometries. What I have discovered may or may not represent the lesson content of Mr. Bill , since I have never had the chance to receive his lesson, but the concepts are just as valid, per my own successful trading of this particular geometry - All of this is for educational use only, and does not constitute a trading recommendation. So, do your own due diligence, as always.
Lesson follows ... Hope you enjoy.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
$EURGBP - as of 11 APR 2015
$EURGBP - WEEKLY Chart as of 11 APR 2015
@iefan, this past February, I posted the following chart:
Since then, I decided to wait for a BACA > 1-3 Line. Anything of a smaller scale is worth considering, keeping in mind that the rallying remains of a relatively high probability at this weekly level.
At the request of several traders, you may have noted that as of today (21 APR 2015), I have started to assign a thread for each Forex pair, so that it facilitates following the analyses. Therefore, from here on, I will make sure to develop a chart for each of the Forex pair, although I will also start posting individual index, stock, and commodities.
If there is a particular chart you'd like to share, please, do not just post the link. Simply use the icon in the right upper corner of the writing window, and cut/paste its URL. If there is a chart you'd like to bring up from another thread, simply right click on it, chose "Copy Link Location", then within that icon in the writing window, paste it, then click "Insert" ... It will show up as the URL address (i.e.: https://www.tradingview.com/xyz123 ... ) framed by URL within your text, but it'll show up as an image once "Post Comment" is clicked. If only the URL is posted without a visible chart, I am not likely to open it, nor would others, since we all go through so many of these charts in any given day. Make it easy for the sake of those who would enjoy your posting, comments and astute charting.
One last thing: If at all possible, try to make your chart as simply looking as possible. There is no need to mention your directional opinion, your feelings about a direction, or what you believe price should do, especially when supported by a myriads of complex and colorful indicators. Charting should never have to reveal the tools you used to arrive at an analysis. It should simply point to the bare essentials, stating a cause/effect, a before/after, or a single, simple point of discussion. I strive to deliver my charts to you in as simple a presentation as possible. The complexity of the predictive model, the technical tools, and other abstract elements are usually removed out of sight, not so much to keep it clean, but to have less "stuff" between you and me, so as to appear that I am here with you, and intentionally sharing something in the clearest and closest fashion as can be delivered.
My goal is nothing short than to introduce you to a different approach, look and activity surrounding charting, technical analysis and predictive analysis. But I want it to be of benefits to the largest number of other readers, students of the market as we all are, daily and incessantly.
I very much appreciate your following thus far, and look forward to more challenging queries.
For instance, if you extend a line to the right connecting the two bottoms that were carved in year 2000, it would transect the recent candles. For the moment, current price is stuck between the 0.72 and 0.74 range, where a cross above 0.74 would represent a significant overcoming of a multi-year pivot (best seen in monthly chart).
In terms of RSI, there is a significant amount of straining implied in its value, as the recent low was not attained since 1997.
Still, your channel remains quite credible, especially if you imagined a median going through the wedge that formed over the 2003-2007 period, whose projection might offer a speculative level of support, coming to correspond with your channel lower bound.
On such a long timeframe, it would be much to wait for a signal, especially one based on price, say a break < 0.700, but that would represent a good indication for further downside. Looking at a daily timeframe, we would see that price closed the market close to the mid-point, between the two levels of interest: 0.700 and 0.740, at 0.7213.
Overall, I am not certain that the channels would help me that much, as there is no clear consistency and there is a risk of form-fitting I would too easily succumb to. However, RSI can definitely budge ever so slightly down, and still throw price into a tailspin, then use that lower channel bound as its springboard, in which case, the new upside target would be lowered from 0.87687 to about 0.78000, a significant differential, based on the background geometry.
I don't feel like I properly answered your question, and instead am now looking at it with a slightly more bearish favor, but the predictive/forecasting model upon which I rely is still maintaining a bullish tack. Until it changes, I would have to let it point to its higher-probability result.
Thats very true, the line from the two lows in 2000 would transect the recent candles. But that is bearish then or am I wrong? If the price could hold above it that would give me a more bullish sign. I might be wrong, but just exchanging views here :).
Last three times this current price was met it has fallen, soon we will know if it will rise from here. I absolutely agree with the RSI, montly there is almost no room down anymore. But if I switch to different timeframes it might be misleading.
Thanks for your extensive feedback.