4xForecaster
Long

LESSON - Adv. Market Geo.: Step-Wise Geometry Development | $EUR

FX:EURGBP   Euro Fx/British Pound
2008 32 26
Following is a step-by-step demonstration of my own approach to Wolfe Waves detection, analysis and trading application. This does not constitute or represent Mr. Bill Wolfe's lesson on his namesake pattern, the Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com).


$EURGBP - H4 Chart:
snapshot


Instead, it represents my own interpretation based on a preceding interest in occult market geometries. What I have discovered may or may not represent the lesson content of Mr. Bill Wolfe, since I have never had the chance to receive his lesson, but the concepts are just as valid, per my own successful trading of this particular geometry - All of this is for educational use only, and does not constitute a trading recommendation. So, do your own due diligence, as always.

Lesson follows ... Hope you enjoy.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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$EURGBP - DAILY Chart as of 11 APR 2015
snapshot


$EURGBP - WEEKLY Chart as of 11 APR 2015
snapshot


David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
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11 APR 2015 - $EURGBP: A Step-by-Step Approach:

Let's turn to a smaller time frame regarding the $EURGBP. As you may recall, there are currently TWO charts I have kept tab on regarding this $EURGBP pair, one DAILY and one WEEKLY chart, as follows as of Saturday, 11 APR 2015:

$EURGBP - DAILY Chart:

snapshot



$EURGBP - WEEKLY Chart:

snapshot



Merely to look for a way to calibrate a LONG entry, I will now be turning to the H4 chart, as follows as of the same date as above charts:


$EURGBP - H4 Chart:

snapshot


The first step for this chart is simply to define a few of the features from the geometry that I would be needing as reference as the pattern develops - As you now realize, we are looking for geometric features that set up a LONG departure to the UP-side. So, as a reminder, the basic rules of construction for a RISING geoemtry are:

1 - 1-3 Line has to reside BELOW the 2-4 Line
2 - Both the 1-3 Line and the 1-4 Line have to point towards the same direction: Both UP or both DOWN. In the case of a rising geometry, we want both to point DOWN, since the reaction sought is an upward thurst
3 - Both 1-3 Line and 2-4 Line have to converge

In addition to these basic construction, we are also interested in looking for the "Tunneling" features. Here, the geometric rules are also pretty simple:

4 - Price will evolve in such as way that it will create a VISUAL path of least resistance, through which a line can easily be imagined running
5 - A geometric anchor point will exist between Point 2 and Poin-3, typically at a mid-way level, offering the reference point for that 'Tunneling" concept, resulting in a 1-4 Line, acting as the Take-Profit target.
6 - The slope of the resulting 1-4 Line is created by a line that will:
-- a- Either run from Point-1 to Point-4
OR
-- b - Run from Point-1 to the "Geo Anchor" reference.
7 - The choice between the two points above will be made by the 1-4 Line that results to a slope leaning CLOSEST relative to Point-5, so that the 1-4 Line is biased towards the reversing price that runs towards it, and increases the chance of getting hit.

Rule #4 above exists simply because in fast, volatile markets, I have seen the 1-4 Line being missed, and further analysis of the geometry would reveal that this "Anchor Geo" adjustment would have resolved this issue in such a volatile environment. This is DIFFERENT from the "Off-Set Rule", which is defined as:

8 - The presence of an ectopic Point-5, which typically resides above its expected position along the 1-3 Line as Point-5, will be defined as 5-prime, or 5'
9 - 5-prime resides along the projection of a paralleled 1-4 Line (dashed) originating from Point-3; a similar 5-secong (5'') would exist originating from Point-1
10 - The target sought from either a price reversal off of either 5' or 5'' shuld be determined as the "Off-Set Rule", as follows:
-- a - From the 5' position, a reversal in price will seek target at a price corresponding to the level of Point-4 of the geometry
-- b - From the 5'' position, a reversal in price will seek target at a price corresponding to the level of Point-3 of the geometry

All TEN RULES above represent the most important information I was able to glean off of the Wolfe Wave. Mr. Bill Wolfe is the author of the pattern, and his course can be accessed on his site at www.WolfeWave.com. I have not taken any of his course, but I had the chance to dissect his pattern over the years, and above rules have constituted elements of a best and safest practice in guiding in the construction of the pattern.


Following, I will use the development of the $EURGBP as a live, on-going way to demonstrate features of the geometric rules, most of which should come to be applied in this demonstration.



11 APR 2014

$EURGBP - H4 Chart:

snapshot


Here, we are starting with a bare chart. Following are the features of the pattern I will applied to a potentially developing geometry. As we go along, I will do my best to keep referring to the TEN RULES above, as well as providing a few trading and charting pearls.

For instance, the first pearl here is to let the development of an Elliott Wave complete from its impulsive 3rd wave to its conclusive 5th wave. This is such because the geometries of interest (Wolfe Wave, wedges, triangles, ... etc) occur as consolidation patterns. Therefore, it is to our best interest to remain patient and wait until such a pattern is taking place.

Another instance is that, it is best to NOT use the early development of the consolidation as Point-1 of the geometry. Although this might not be always true, I have found that letting the pattern develop will often lead to the TRUER geometry. You will see this in Points 1 and 1', where 1' might represent a better point of origin for the pattern, as follows:


snapshot


In the points above, you can appreciate that the future development of the 1-3 Line is attempted by simply revealing that the potential development of the geometry occurs with a DECLINING base, which the 1-3 Line represents - This is based on one of the rule above:

---------------------
1 - 1-3 Line has to reside BELOW the 2-4 Line
2 - Both the 1-3 Line and the 1-4 Line have to point towards the same direction: Both UP or both DOWN. In the case of a rising geometry, we want both to point DOWN, since the reaction sought is an upward thurst
3 - Both 1-3 Line and 2-4 Line have to converge
--------------------

HOWEVER, as indicated, one could easily be fooled by the correct placement of Point-1, In my experience, it is best to keep one's mind open to the possibility of a later development of the geometry, relative to the recent completion and conversion of a price moving from an Elliott Wave impulse to an Elliott Wave correction ... Remember: ALL of these geometries are sought at times of a correction, when price consolidates into internal up and down swings.


NEXT, we are looking for additional features of the developing pattern. Here, I am referring to the "Tunneling" rule:

-------------------
4 - Price will evolve in such as way that it will create a VISUAL path of least resistance, through which a line can easily be imagined running
5 - A geometric anchor point will exist between Point 2 and Poin-3, typically at a mid-way level, offering the reference point for that 'Tunneling" concept, resulting in a 1-4 Line, acting as the Take-Profit target.
6 - The slope of the resulting 1-4 Line is created by a line that will:
-- a- Either run from Point-1 to Point-4
OR
-- b - Run from Point-1 to the "Geo Anchor" reference.
7 - The choice between the two points above will be made by the 1-4 Line that results to a slope leaning CLOSEST relative to Point-5, so that the 1-4 Line is biased towards the reversing price that runs towards it, and increases the chance of getting hit.

Rule #4 above exists simply because in fast, volatile markets, I have seen the 1-4 Line being missed, and further analysis of the geometry would reveal that this "Anchor Geo" adjustment would have resolved this issue in such a volatile environment. This is DIFFERENT from the "Off-Set Rule", which is defined as:
---------------------


So, this leads to the following potential lines (dotted):

snapshot



Now, remember that the Geo Anchor concept has to be kept in mind at all times, even this early in the development of the geometry. Here, I am referring to the choice of lines that would represent the 1-4 Line, or the Take-Profit, once price reverses from Point-5.

Point-5 will be naturally defined along the 1-3 Line, and the anchor choices are as follows ... relative to Point-1, where the RED asterix points to a attractive but not correct Geo Anchor, while the GREEN on points to the better one:

snapshot


Thus, we get the following result:

snapshot



Applying the same exercise relative to Point-1', we get:

snapshot



Remember that the Geo Anchor concept has to do with define that point in time that is BEST suited to define a Take Profit.


OVERALL:

Well, this is it for now. I hope you have enjoyed this early, LIVE development of a market geometry, I will continue to post about this particular chart as time and actual geometry development permit. As I post this on this rather crowded thread, I wil also cut and paste this content and make it a new thread, dedicated specifically to this #EURGBP pair. Here too, as time permit, I will do the same with other Forex, index or any price moving, tradable species.

Thank you for reading thus far. If you enjoy these instructions, please let it be known by a mere thumbs up, as this will allow me to better gauge which topic is most interesting to this community.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predicitive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
11 APR 2015 - Correction and addition:

Last chart is corrected as follows:

snapshot



For those who know the various symbols I have used in my predictive analyses and forecasting, the dashed arrow ALWAYS represents the least probable outcome, whereas the SOLID arrow will represent the most probable outcome.

In both the chart, where Point-1 and Point-1' are tentatively defined, the SOLID arrow is defined as if simply because it represents the MOST PROXIMAL tentative definition of the 1-4 Line using the "Geo Anchor" rule as the "Tunneling" concept defined above, which again is:

----------------
4 - Price will evolve in such as way that it will create a VISUAL path of least resistance, through which a line can easily be imagined running
5 - A geometric anchor point will exist between Point 2 and Poin-3, typically at a mid-way level, offering the reference point for that 'Tunneling" concept, resulting in a 1-4 Line, acting as the Take-Profit target.
6 - The slope of the resulting 1-4 Line is created by a line that will:
-- a- Either run from Point-1 to Point-4
OR
-- b - Run from Point-1 to the "Geo Anchor" reference.
7 - The choice between the two points above will be made by the 1-4 Line that results to a slope leaning CLOSEST relative to Point-5, so that the 1-4 Line is biased towards the reversing price that runs towards it, and increases the chance of getting hit.

Rule #4 above exists simply because in fast, volatile markets, I have seen the 1-4 Line being missed, and further analysis of the geometry would reveal that this "Anchor Geo" adjustment would have resolved this issue in such a volatile environment. This is DIFFERENT from the "Off-Set Rule", which is defined as:
----------------

Hence, the two resulting potential charts:


snapshot


OR

snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Analysis David is amazing mature and mellow, great job and a big bravo !!
One question David, how do we know from the beginning of the chart that the price will follow an upward trend or downward trend? This will be crucial for the definition of point 1.We could start point 1 from the highest point on the chart above (0.73800-0.73900 price level)?
Reply
11 APR 2015 - RULE OF ENGAGEMENT - Contributions, Requests & Comments:

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TradingView is not yet optimally configured for linearly-delivered lessons, but I believe that they are working on improving this aspect of the site, as many other things they have done so far by working around the clock and constantly making this site the best there is in trading education and exchange of actionable, profitable trading ideas - This only occurs thanks to your constant feedback and support. For any technical request or demand for improvement, contact @admin (Stan Bokov)by email at: founders@tradingview.com, or simply following this link: https://getsatisfaction.com/tradingview for more general request.
------------------------

Please, you are very welcome to post charts that suggests new findings in the geometry, or inquires about general aspect of the geometry. HOWEVER, I will occasionally remove message where the content is found irrelevant, self-promoting, or inappropriate. This is not an attempt to police anyone, but simply a desire to keep this and other similar thread as beneficial and educational as possible to he greatest number of individuals in this increadibly diverse TradingView.com community - I will tend to not answer private request, suggestions or comments, as there is simply too many places to be at the same time, and that would simply be too unfair to miss an incredible suggestion and smart comment, if shared in separate format.

This is for you, the budding trader, the Geo-Buff, the up and coming beast of the trading world ... In the mean time, don't let me take your money by making stupid trading mistake. The money you lose is the money I got. So, thank you in advance, but no-thank ... Improve, shape up and treat this as your own little corner business.

Last thought: This is all free. There is no leading up to some gloated commercial end. It also represents years (at least since 1997) of geometric market research and trading experience ... I am not talking about the Wolfe Wave, whose discovery belongs to Mr. Bill Wolfe (www.WolfeWave.com - I have no financial interest in this, but I do like to keep the authorship credit where it belongs). I am taking about all of the little finds and discoveries of my own I have accumulated over the years which have contributed largely to the dissection of this and other patterns. I am the author and owner of other proprietary strategies, patterns and market ge0metry concepts, some of which can be gleaned across this TradingView.com site, or also looking me up on the 4xQuad page on Facebook (www.facebook.com/4xquad - Don't go to 4xQuad.com, as I let that URL go, and it is now an escort service, ... yeah, well, not as sexy as market geometry, so I apologize for being more interesting than that site, right?).

Enjoy, jump in, get excited, and calm down.

Best,


David Alcindor
alias: 4xForecaster
+5 Reply
11- APR_2015 18:53 BST
Hi David, Thanks as ever for you time and incredible contributions you had in my personal development. Few concerns regarding the rules of constructions;

Q1) "... we are looking for geometric features that set up a LONG departure to the UP-side. So, as a reminder, the basic rules of construction for a RISING geometry .."; My understanding is that the term RISING is emphasizing on the fact that trade direction would be long AND you are NOT implying that the WW pattern should necessarily completere in the form of a RISING wedge.

Q2) "2 - Both the 1-3 Line and the 1-4 Line have to point towards the same direction: Both UP or both DOWN. In the case of a rising geometry, we want both to point DOWN, since the reaction sought is an upward thrust "; You mean the 2-4 line, isn't it?

Q3) I have read a PDF you shared on WW pattern from your drop-box on one of your treads. In that document Bill Wolfe warns for watching the heavy tick VOLUME as a confirmation in his verifying his pattern. I assume this is not something you have considered to be significant. Am I right?

Thanks again,
Hamed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani

Q1 - Not sure what you are asking. Simply put, a rising 1-3 Line prepares for a drop, whereas a declining one prepares for a rally.
Q2 - Yes. Typo. Thank you!
Q3 - I do not use the volume, but if Mr. Bill Wolfe recommends it, he has the authority (experience) and authorship (ownership) that should always be heeded. I use the geometry as a background to illustrate what I cannot share out of my Predictive/Forecasting Model, which does NOT use volume.

For the sake of learning the pattern itself, I would turn to Mr. Bill Wolfe's site: www.WolfeWave.com for sure.

David
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. I often struggle to locate point-1. In some structures it seems to me quite subjective. Do you have a distinguished definition for point -1? Or you choose it with respect to point-3? Kindly, Hamed.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani,

There are several tentative methods worth considering.

One is simply to look at the left of the level that is considered "Point-1", and see whether an imaginary line would line up with that level - What I mean here may be a bit involved, but simply stated, looking at Elliott Wave Point-2, draw a line from EW-Pt2 and keep it tangential to the impulse movement. As some point, it should also transect EW's 4th wave, and keep going beyond it. See whether price aims and validates this imaginary line after it returns from the completion of EW's 4th wave, as it now turns to define EW's 5th wave.

A less esoteric way is to look at structures, which is simply to define highs and lows. Here too, looking at the tail-end of an EW impulse, the EW's 4th wave will carve a "LOW" at the termination level of EW's Pt-3, and a "HIGH" at the termination level of EW's Pt-4. I would NOT consider these level starting grounds for the geometry, but instead remain aware that a CONSOLIDATION is about to start, as a EW's 5th wave now needs to occur. It is along that EW's 5th wave that I would seek for levels from which to derive the points of the geometry. At this point, we are assuming that both EW's pt-3 and pt-4 exist, based on this LOW/HIGH ... Let price reverse back towards Pt-3 from this EW's Pt-4 and wait for a new internal structure (internal to the range defined by both EW's pt-3 and pt-4. As price reverses back towards EW's pt-4, an internal structure (i.e.: low, in the case where EW impulse is bearish, or high in the case where EW is bullish). This level should be your Pt-1. An internal lower low should occur as your next Point-3, whereas Point-4 should fall BELOW the prior Point-2 ... All this in the case of a bearish EW system, since here we are following a price that goes DOWN, and therefore the 1-3 Line should be pointing DOWN as well.

Using a Fibonacci scale, and considering the same EW impulse going down, I would expect Point-1 of the geo to be below Point-2, and that Point-1 would be greater than 0.886 (not always, but worth keeping in mind), whereas Point-2 would simply fall below the large EW's Pt-4 ... Next, expand the Fib to estimate Point-3 of the geo at 1.272, 1.313 or 1.414 of the Point-1/Point-2 height, whereas Point-5 should be kept a 1.414/1.618 of Pt1/Pt-2 height.

Let me know of this makes any sense at all.

To illustrate the different ways, here is a chart that may infuse some sense:

- The purple arrow refers to the first strategy, where the "spine" of the Elliott Wave impulse remains tethered to that line UNTIL it is broken. Once this occurs, then a Wave-4 is likely underway.
* * * PEARL: See that there is SOME symmetry maintained in the distance that separates Point-3 to that spine, and that spine to Point-4 * * *

- In the case of the structural approach, I often seek any lines I can use near Point-3 of the EW. Here, the dashed GREEN line illustrates this as well ... Very often, the ensuin geo will develop at a near-parallel level as it is right now.

The first triangle I drew was premature on purpose, as in RARER instances, a geo can develop with its Point-1 right at EW's Pt-3, but this is only a rare case. As I followed that geo development, its Point-4 kept on eluding me (perhaps, you have followed this chart I was drawing, where i redefined its point-4 several times). In this process, it became apparent that EW's Pt-3 was not the geo's Point-1, and for this reason, I shift the geo's points one structure to the right, away from EW's pt-3.

snapshot



Is this making a bit more sense with the ilustration?


David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@HamedAghajani - You do not need to become an expert in Elliott Wave principle, as i am not one myself. However, it is important to recognize a new high and a new low. Here, EW's pt-3 cannot be a lowest-low until price reaches a level higher than its preceding low. Once price does so, and especially if the "spine" is broken, then you are LIKELY to be dealing with the EW's 4th wave development, thus making this prior low the "lowest-low, which is to be called EW's Pt-3, and the next high: EW's pt-4.

Only once price descends back from that higher-high = EW's pt-4 can you start looking for anchor points that will define your geo.

See also in that same chart how I first projected a potential 1-4 Line off of EW's pt-3 (assuming prematurely that it could be the geo's Point-1? However, as the geo's Pt-1 became apparent, I simply waited for its Point-2 to be defined, so that I could use internal ups and downs in the development of that Point-2 and use the spike between Point-1 and Point-2 to look for a potential geo anchor ... which is the tip of the "W" in the chart ... this too is premature, but keeps me aware of no other valid internal geo anchor - See PINK arrow in the chart:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Following are other examples of "Spines" I use to allert me of the probability that a 4th wave is afoot:

$CADJPY:
snapshot



$EURGBP -Here, a potential symmetry might (just might) develop around this potential spine:
snapshot



$GBPAUD:
snapshot



$GBPCAD:
snapshot



$GBPNZD:
snapshot



... etc., ... I have 39 charts open, and most of them have a geo tentatively forming, probably forming or formed already, and all demonstrates the "Spine". I now do not use it, but when I play around and look for that geo, a "Spine" always precedes it.

The reason is quite simple: A geometry, such as WW, or EW's Ending Diagonals are consolidation patterns. In terms of EW, there can be only an impulse or a correction.

Impulses are formed as Waves 1, 3 and 5, whereas corrections are formed by waves 2 and 4. Since these geos are most CONSISTENT and predictable in their reversible nature, then there is no other place but after the completion of a EW's 3rd wave that it becomes productive to look for it.

The most important tools are eyeballs, and lack of impatience, letting price unfold, and letting the geo come to you.


David
+2 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thanks a million
+1 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, I remember you started a thread on EW's IMP and COR structures. I scrolled through your page to find those lessons ; couldn't find them. Would you please cite them here; Kindly, Hamed.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Hello @HamedAghajani - I will return to it at some point in the future. Right now, there is plenty of good literature on Elliott Wave, which is far superior in quality than I can provide. I am referring to the free PDF (following free registration) of Robert Prechter's basic lessons on Elliott Waves - Here is a very good link: http://elliottwave.com/club/

I have had issues with this site before, when they announced a particular forecast, whereas my predictive model was pointing to the opposite direction (in the SP500 and USDJPY) - They simply don't care about your opinion, and they constantly redraw the lines. Still, this is the best site for basic EW teaching. Videos, PDFs are free, and sometimes, they hold free forecasts as a way to get people to buy into their services - I personally quit their forecasts, as they have conflicted too often with my model.

Since we are on the topic of referral to professional sites, I would also recommend reading Ashraf Laidi's book on Inter-Market Analysis, which puts Forex, indices and bonds together within an elaborate, but concise and well-explained mental frame work. This is a book one needs to keep at the bedside, if ever interested in understanding the larger systems that interrupts, boosts and play into Forex - Here is a link into Amazon, which offers a peeping service into the pages of the book: http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Trading-Intermarket-Analysis-Shifting/dp/0470226234/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1429276567&sr=8-1&keywords=Ashraf+laidi .

David
+3 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David:
This is a chart I tried to create based on your lessons. the Geo looks more like a continuation pattern, rather a reversal;
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Helo @HamedAghajani ... You got it, although I am not sure whether the origin of Point-1 is off of an EW's IMP or COR - If it's off of a COR, then it looks good to me.

Nice.

David
+2 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot


David, i'm not sure, have we IN PROGRESS a Running triangle constellation ? What is your opinion?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO takefal
2 years ago
Hello @takefal - I am not familiar with this pattern, at least not the sort I follow.

David
Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
$XAUUSD

3 May 2015

Hi David. A probable short term rally before a further decline?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Market fundies suggest that $AUD's expected rate decline has been priced in. My forecasts on the $AUD has been bullish across the board. A rallying in $XAU would most definitely carry $AUD crosses with it.

Other positively correlated currencies are CAD, CHF, and NZD to a lesser extend. USD would likely suffer from gold's buoyancy.


David

David
+1 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
are you bullish on AUDUSD David?
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Rock-solid!
+1 Reply
iefan PRO
2 years ago
Thank you David, printed and on my wall!
+2 Reply
Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
David,

Do you believe this pair has bottomed? My channel tells me this is not the case yet, might be wrong, but RSI pointing downwards once more too. There is a hidden bullish divergence in this pair, hopefully we can reach that bottom for awesome moves.
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Hello, @LighthouseKeeper - I am not sure whether the channels would help me answer this question.

For instance, if you extend a line to the right connecting the two bottoms that were carved in year 2000, it would transect the recent candles. For the moment, current price is stuck between the 0.72 and 0.74 range, where a cross above 0.74 would represent a significant overcoming of a multi-year pivot (best seen in monthly chart).

In terms of RSI, there is a significant amount of straining implied in its value, as the recent low was not attained since 1997.

Still, your channel remains quite credible, especially if you imagined a median going through the wedge that formed over the 2003-2007 period, whose projection might offer a speculative level of support, coming to correspond with your channel lower bound.

On such a long timeframe, it would be much to wait for a signal, especially one based on price, say a break < 0.700, but that would represent a good indication for further downside. Looking at a daily timeframe, we would see that price closed the market close to the mid-point, between the two levels of interest: 0.700 and 0.740, at 0.7213.

Overall, I am not certain that the channels would help me that much, as there is no clear consistency and there is a risk of form-fitting I would too easily succumb to. However, RSI can definitely budge ever so slightly down, and still throw price into a tailspin, then use that lower channel bound as its springboard, in which case, the new upside target would be lowered from 0.87687 to about 0.78000, a significant differential, based on the background geometry.

I don't feel like I properly answered your question, and instead am now looking at it with a slightly more bearish favor, but the predictive/forecasting model upon which I rely is still maintaining a bullish tack. Until it changes, I would have to let it point to its higher-probability result.


David
+2 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

Thats very true, the line from the two lows in 2000 would transect the recent candles. But that is bearish then or am I wrong? If the price could hold above it that would give me a more bullish sign. I might be wrong, but just exchanging views here :).

Last three times this current price was met it has fallen, soon we will know if it will rise from here. I absolutely agree with the RSI, montly there is almost no room down anymore. But if I switch to different timeframes it might be misleading.

Thanks for your extensive feedback.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Hello @LighthouseKeeper - As I said before, I would not try to look for a directional meaning out of parallels that may or may not have a reasonable correlation with price. In times it does, it would be safe to rely on them in measured, cautious ways, but the moment there is conflicting evidence (such as trying to fit lines or adjusting timeframes, and finding a solution that satisfies both directional biases, as I find it to be the case here), I tend to look for another tool.

David
+1 Reply
21 APR 2015 - Update:

Hello TV'ers,

At the request of several traders, you may have noted that as of today (21 APR 2015), I have started to assign a thread for each Forex pair, so that it facilitates following the analyses. Therefore, from here on, I will make sure to develop a chart for each of the Forex pair, although I will also start posting individual index, stock, and commodities.

If there is a particular chart you'd like to share, please, do not just post the link. Simply use the icon in the right upper corner of the writing window, and cut/paste its URL. If there is a chart you'd like to bring up from another thread, simply right click on it, chose "Copy Link Location", then within that icon in the writing window, paste it, then click "Insert" ... It will show up as the URL address (i.e.: https://www.tradingview.com/xyz123 ... ) framed by  within your text, but it'll show up as an image once "Post Comment" is clicked. If only the URL is posted without a visible chart, I am not likely to open it, nor would others, since we all go through so many of these charts in any given day. Make it easy for the sake of those who would enjoy your posting, comments and astute charting.

One last thing: If at all possible, try to make your chart as simply looking as possible. There is no need to mention your directional opinion, your feelings about a direction, or what you believe price should do, especially when supported by a myriads of complex and colorful indicators. Charting should never have to reveal the tools you used to arrive at an analysis. It should simply point to the bare essentials, stating a cause/effect, a before/after, or a single, simple point of discussion. I strive to deliver my charts to you in as simple a presentation as possible. The complexity of the predictive model, the technical tools, and other abstract elements are usually removed out of sight, not so much to keep it clean, but to have less "stuff" between you and me, so as to appear that I am here with you, and intentionally sharing something in the clearest and closest fashion as can be delivered.

My goal is nothing short than to introduce you to a different approach, look and activity surrounding charting, technical analysis and predictive analysis. But I want it to be of benefits to the largest number of other readers, students of the market as we all are, daily and incessantly.

I very much appreciate your following thus far, and look forward to more challenging queries.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
01 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$EURGBP made significant incursions today as it broke above the recent structure high; Bullish outlook:

snapshot


$EUR $GBP
---------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
First target hit!
GBPCAD good time to go long
Reply
iefan PRO
a year ago
20 July 2015:

$EURGBP

Hi David

Was hoping you could look at this WW and share your thoughts on a possible rally from here or is there higher probability of one of your Geo developments forming with a decline in price to a Point 5'?

Kind regards

iefan

snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
20 JUL 2015

@iefan, this past February, I posted the following chart:

snapshot


Since then, I decided to wait for a BACA > 1-3 Line. Anything of a smaller scale is worth considering, keeping in mind that the rallying remains of a relatively high probability at this weekly level.



David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
David I think it's possible that this rally has started. Got an updated view?
Reply
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