4xForecaster
Long

LESSON - Adv. Market Geo.: Step-Wise Geometry Development | $EUR

FX:EURGBP   Euro Fx/British Pound
Following is a step-by-step demonstration of my own approach to Wolfe Waves detection, analysis and trading application. This does not constitute or represent Mr. Bill Wolfe's lesson on his namesake pattern, the Wolfe Wave (www.WolfeWave.com).


$EURGBP - H4 Chart:
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Instead, it represents my own interpretation based on a preceding interest in occult market geometries. What I have discovered may or may not represent the lesson content of Mr. Bill Wolfe , since I have never had the chance to receive his lesson, but the concepts are just as valid, per my own successful trading of this particular geometry - All of this is for educational use only, and does not constitute a trading recommendation. So, do your own due diligence, as always.

Lesson follows ... Hope you enjoy.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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$EURGBP - DAILY Chart as of 11 APR             2015
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$EURGBP - WEEKLY Chart as of 11 APR             2015
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David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
20 July 2015:

$EURGBP

Hi David

Was hoping you could look at this WW and share your thoughts on a possible rally from here or is there higher probability of one of your Geo developments forming with a decline in price to a Point 5'?

Kind regards

iefan

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+1 Reply
20 JUL 2015

@iefan, this past February, I posted the following chart:

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Since then, I decided to wait for a BACA > 1-3 Line. Anything of a smaller scale is worth considering, keeping in mind that the rallying remains of a relatively high probability at this weekly level.



David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
David I think it's possible that this rally has started. Got an updated view?
Reply
First target hit!
GBPCAD good time to go long
Reply
01 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$EURGBP made significant incursions today as it broke above the recent structure high; Bullish outlook:

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$EUR $GBP
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
21 APR 2015 - Update:

Hello TV'ers,

At the request of several traders, you may have noted that as of today (21 APR 2015), I have started to assign a thread for each Forex pair, so that it facilitates following the analyses. Therefore, from here on, I will make sure to develop a chart for each of the Forex pair, although I will also start posting individual index, stock, and commodities.

If there is a particular chart you'd like to share, please, do not just post the link. Simply use the icon in the right upper corner of the writing window, and cut/paste its URL. If there is a chart you'd like to bring up from another thread, simply right click on it, chose "Copy Link Location", then within that icon in the writing window, paste it, then click "Insert" ... It will show up as the URL address (i.e.: https://www.tradingview.com/xyz123 ... ) framed by  within your text, but it'll show up as an image once "Post Comment" is clicked. If only the URL is posted without a visible chart, I am not likely to open it, nor would others, since we all go through so many of these charts in any given day. Make it easy for the sake of those who would enjoy your posting, comments and astute charting.

One last thing: If at all possible, try to make your chart as simply looking as possible. There is no need to mention your directional opinion, your feelings about a direction, or what you believe price should do, especially when supported by a myriads of complex and colorful indicators. Charting should never have to reveal the tools you used to arrive at an analysis. It should simply point to the bare essentials, stating a cause/effect, a before/after, or a single, simple point of discussion. I strive to deliver my charts to you in as simple a presentation as possible. The complexity of the predictive model, the technical tools, and other abstract elements are usually removed out of sight, not so much to keep it clean, but to have less "stuff" between you and me, so as to appear that I am here with you, and intentionally sharing something in the clearest and closest fashion as can be delivered.

My goal is nothing short than to introduce you to a different approach, look and activity surrounding charting, technical analysis and predictive analysis. But I want it to be of benefits to the largest number of other readers, students of the market as we all are, daily and incessantly.

I very much appreciate your following thus far, and look forward to more challenging queries.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
David,

Do you believe this pair has bottomed? My channel tells me this is not the case yet, might be wrong, but RSI pointing downwards once more too. There is a hidden bullish divergence in this pair, hopefully we can reach that bottom for awesome moves.
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+1 Reply
Hello, @LighthouseKeeper - I am not sure whether the channels would help me answer this question.

For instance, if you extend a line to the right connecting the two bottoms that were carved in year 2000, it would transect the recent candles. For the moment, current price is stuck between the 0.72 and 0.74 range, where a cross above 0.74 would represent a significant overcoming of a multi-year pivot (best seen in monthly chart).

In terms of RSI, there is a significant amount of straining implied in its value, as the recent low was not attained since 1997.

Still, your channel remains quite credible, especially if you imagined a median going through the wedge that formed over the 2003-2007 period, whose projection might offer a speculative level of support, coming to correspond with your channel lower bound.

On such a long timeframe, it would be much to wait for a signal, especially one based on price, say a break < 0.700, but that would represent a good indication for further downside. Looking at a daily timeframe, we would see that price closed the market close to the mid-point, between the two levels of interest: 0.700 and 0.740, at 0.7213.

Overall, I am not certain that the channels would help me that much, as there is no clear consistency and there is a risk of form-fitting I would too easily succumb to. However, RSI can definitely budge ever so slightly down, and still throw price into a tailspin, then use that lower channel bound as its springboard, in which case, the new upside target would be lowered from 0.87687 to about 0.78000, a significant differential, based on the background geometry.

I don't feel like I properly answered your question, and instead am now looking at it with a slightly more bearish favor, but the predictive/forecasting model upon which I rely is still maintaining a bullish tack. Until it changes, I would have to let it point to its higher-probability result.


David
+2 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
Hi David,

Thats very true, the line from the two lows in 2000 would transect the recent candles. But that is bearish then or am I wrong? If the price could hold above it that would give me a more bullish sign. I might be wrong, but just exchanging views here :).

Last three times this current price was met it has fallen, soon we will know if it will rise from here. I absolutely agree with the RSI, montly there is almost no room down anymore. But if I switch to different timeframes it might be misleading.

Thanks for your extensive feedback.
+1 Reply
Hello @LighthouseKeeper - As I said before, I would not try to look for a directional meaning out of parallels that may or may not have a reasonable correlation with price. In times it does, it would be safe to rely on them in measured, cautious ways, but the moment there is conflicting evidence (such as trying to fit lines or adjusting timeframes, and finding a solution that satisfies both directional biases, as I find it to be the case here), I tend to look for another tool.

David
+1 Reply
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