Kumowizard

Rate cut did not matter. What about divergences?

FX_IDC:EURHUF   EURO / FORINT
43 0 4
Bulls forced it higher even after Fitch upgraded Hungary. What's more, the "strangest" central bank of the world tried to force it even higher with another 15 bps             rate cut today. OMG! Hungary as 0,90 % rate country :-D hahahaha
If someone had ever told me this... Ah, never mind. The whole world and most of central bankers lost completely their minds. Why would a small European country be different?

Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup seems bullish again. WHat's more, we have a medium bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross.
- But price reached 318 resistance, while haDelta/SMA3 already signals loss off momentum after 4 weeks of bullish action.
- Lower supp/res levels: 313 / 311 / 308

Daily:
- Ichimoku is bullish , lowe supports are: 313 (Kijun) and 312 (Kumo and 100wma)
- Heikin-Ashi candles are very strange. for the third day in a row they have small bodies and in the last two days very long wicks! It tells us the story: yesterday (first trading day after the upgrade) some bulls got stopped and some opened shorts for retracement. Including myself. Bloody bulls tried all they could to push it over 318 resistance. But what happens when net net mkt is extremely short HUF? Of course there is no one to be stopped really.
And according to some data I received today from a friend (sent from Bloomberg) market is in fact very short in HUF!
- There is something else notable: haDelta negative divergence to price!

So did you find last 3 days exciting in EURHUF? Well intraday actions were awsome. In fact we are at the same closing levels. I think the bearish HUF             action was mainly on back of PLN and RON weakness, and also due to some outflows as major Hungarian companies on BSE             have just paid dividends.
Don't forget, the C/A is still massive positive!

For the record: if you follow me on Twitter, there you saw how I got burnt a bit on too early shorts. Not a big deal as I only stopped half of the position, and the stop took place right in time. The rest I keep, as I think EURHUF             is stretched here, and both techs and positionning suggests consolidation and pull back may still happen.
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