All this Goulasch caused a rdical move in FX swaps too, first time in history USDHUF long has a positive carry quite long out on the forward curve! This means the positive carry of HUF vas USD or EUR not just disappeared, but is kind of negative now.
And here comes the question: If there is no carry at all, what the hell is the reason behind such a low in HUF? The Forint was extremely stable during the last few weeks of global risk off turmoil, it was hardly reacting to anything unlike for example some other G10 ccys (like CAD or NOK ) did.... ok, Hungary is not an Oil producer :-D... but compared to any other EM ccys the relative performance of HUF was remarkable too! The other question is if NBH has any special and silent target? Don't forget, this and its President's concept is quite unorthodox in terms of .
Reasons may be: still extremely high level of C/A surplus, expected rating upgrade of Hungary later this year (although credit already trades a lot better than a BB S&P , Ba1 moody's rating), very high level of reserves, maybe commercial banks already frontloaded bond purchases in last few months.
But most importantly -> there is no special story right now regarding Hungary! Probably not really in focus.
- picture is neutral. price reached important ard 315-317.
- Heikin Ashi shows loss of momentum this week. No higher high, chance for an inside body, with haDelta/SMA3 cross down. If risk sentiment globally improves a bit, we may see some slip back to lower supports from here
- Strategic key reversal point is coming higher: long term supports are now ard 305-306 / 300-302
- Ichimok is still , Kijun Sen is still a bit too low for a reversal signal.
- Heikin Ashi however shows some undecision, as previous top could not be reached either. haDelta/SMA3 at zero line. Is it building a ard the multiple resistance of 317?
- Lower supports are at 312,50 and 311. Breaking below 310-311 would validate a possible on daily with measured tgt to 300-302.