EURHUF - Smaller waves on a quiet market, longs preferred
Daily: The major trend is still bullish for this pair. As you see the multi-year bullish trendline (light green) now stays together with a very important horizontal key support ard 301,80. From the 2014 top of 317 EURHUF has developed a counter trend with obviously decreasing waves. If I am right, we see the 4th wave right now, so short term the indication is buy, especially that Slow Stoch and MACD gave buy signals same time too. On MACD we also have a positive divergence. The short term counter trend "bullish" Price target is a , as wbig question, as we have a very thick Kumo above Price, and also future Kumo components still point down. This wave I think can last until 308-308,50, but from there we shoukld see the fifth wave down to minimum previous bottom or even to the major 301,80-302 support.
To understand HUF, you need to know about few fundamental forces behind the sceenes. The private households FX loan conversion is a done deal, so in terms of HUF bearish risks this is out now, as Commercial Banks won't have any hedging needs, they do not have to buy EURHUF as the NBH gave all the necessary FX for them. However politically the Government may have a bit of headache here, as the conversion happened at a fixing of 309, so it would not be very easy to communicate to voters how well they were bailed out if by some reason HUF strengthens a lot from here until Feb/2015, when the conversions and loan re-calculations will efectively take place.
Besides this, Hungary is highly involved in the global FX war, especially that as a small, open, export oriented country its competitivness depends a lot on relative FX valuation. CPI is at all time low there (partially artificial, but thats a different story, and anyway, core CPI has decreased further, so weaker FX is not a problem, may even help budget income side a bit too.
On the other side the Government has been "fighting" another enemy: Keeping the budget ballance within 3 % of GDP and more importantly to keep Debt to GDP lower than previous year's basis. For this reason a rather "stronger" HUF is welcome until 31/Dec, but from Jan/2015 HUF wekness will be "preferred" by decision makers.
The direction of EURHUF will depend a lot on global mood and risk factors. In shocks HUF can be vulnerable, as the multi-year positive carry is not supporting HUF any more, the base rate is at record low (2,1 %), and NBH will try to keep it as low as possible for as long as possible. (they have multiple reasons). But in case there won't be global black swan events causing mkts meltdown, HUF weakening can be limited, especially until Hungary keeps its CA surplus.
Conclusion: I would be a buyer of EURHUF on dips, until the major trend and macro fundamentals do not change the big picture. If we see a dip to 302, there probably I would try to load a bigger size long.
To understand HUF, you need to know about few fundamental forces behind the sceenes. The private households FX loan conversion is a done deal, so in terms of HUF bearish risks this is out now, as Commercial Banks won't have any hedging needs, they do not have to buy EURHUF as the NBH gave all the necessary FX for them. However politically the Government may have a bit of headache here, as the conversion happened at a fixing of 309, so it would not be very easy to communicate to voters how well they were bailed out if by some reason HUF strengthens a lot from here until Feb/2015, when the conversions and loan re-calculations will efectively take place.
Besides this, Hungary is highly involved in the global FX war, especially that as a small, open, export oriented country its competitivness depends a lot on relative FX valuation. CPI is at all time low there (partially artificial, but thats a different story, and anyway, core CPI has decreased further, so weaker FX is not a problem, may even help budget income side a bit too.
On the other side the Government has been "fighting" another enemy: Keeping the budget ballance within 3 % of GDP and more importantly to keep Debt to GDP lower than previous year's basis. For this reason a rather "stronger" HUF is welcome until 31/Dec, but from Jan/2015 HUF wekness will be "preferred" by decision makers.
The direction of EURHUF will depend a lot on global mood and risk factors. In shocks HUF can be vulnerable, as the multi-year positive carry is not supporting HUF any more, the base rate is at record low (2,1 %), and NBH will try to keep it as low as possible for as long as possible. (they have multiple reasons). But in case there won't be global black swan events causing mkts meltdown, HUF weakening can be limited, especially until Hungary keeps its CA surplus.
Conclusion: I would be a buyer of EURHUF on dips, until the major trend and macro fundamentals do not change the big picture. If we see a dip to 302, there probably I would try to load a bigger size long.
