Kumowizard
Short

EURHUF - Has it become a managed ccy?

72 0 3
Long term I am still very bullish for EURHUF             , but hey, look at this range which still persist! Who is on the top? For me it looks like policy makers do not want to see it a lot higher than 314-315. General election is due on 6th/April, so I would not be surprised if there have been some "silent intervention" behind the curtain. (btw as far as I know NBH ccy reserves decresed recently by a few hundred million EUR). ... but this is all a guessing ;-). Anyway it is good for a short now with initial tgt             310. Be quick, as this one is always moving super fast. As I called your attention in my previous pots regarding EURHUF             , NBH has still a lot of reserves to keep volatility lower, while they are still incredibly desperate to cut benchmark rate as low as possible (ZIRP? :-D). However long term I think HUF             will become under real pressure, and will suffer same way as TRY. Btw, I am thinking a lot about how we could make a good strategic short on huf             , and recently I started to examine TRYHUF. I will try to post stg             on this later, as this issue will be very very important for professional fund managers (real money and hedge funds as well) very soon as Hungary is doing an extremely dangerous monetary policy , while it has weak fiscal policy and a huge debt still. Basically NBH is going against the EM rate cycle that has already started (hikes everywhere). This will have consequences. But as I said, for now SELL small and buy double size at the range bottom :-). This has been the good risk reward trade for weeks now.
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