Kumowizard
Long

EURHUF - NBH rate setting meeting in focus

FX_IDC:EURHUF   EURO / FORINT
45 3 1
Hungarian Central Bank will have MPC             rte setting meeting next Tuesday. Most of analysts expect the NBH to re-start (continue) its easing cycle in some form, as most of the central banks do globally. Polish Central Bank cut base rate a few weeks ago, Hungarian will likely follow them and all the others.

Let's check the technicals!

Weekly:
- Price tried to break the long term trend line (since 2008) and the weekly Kumo three times during last few weeks. But until no close below Trendline, Kumo and horizontal line (means no lower low) the trend break and reversal attempt will be only a false signal.
- Weekly Ichimoku setup is neutral: Price in the cloud, Chikou SPan is below past candles but above the Kumo. Tenkan/Kijun has been in weak bearish cross for some time, but both averages are still above Kumo top.
- Heikin Ashi candle for this week is rather bearish , but as you see the last three candles (including recent one) rather express undecision with down-up-down pattern.
- Weekly bullish key reversal would be a spike or close above 307,45 with haDelta/SMA3 confirmation above zero line

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup can slowly turn back to neutral. Actually due to increased vol             Tenkan/Kijun is in weak bullish cross
- Price tried to break the lower resistance of 302,50-302,75, but all the three attempts failed.
- Heikin Ashi candle today signals a bullish reversal, haDelta/SMA3 cross increases the chance for more bullish move in coming days.
- Daily key level is at the Tenkan/Kijun/Trendline conjunction: appr. 305-305,50, but with a close above 306 the space will be open to 310 or maybe even to 313 again.
- Watch Chikou Span cross for confirmation later.

Close shorts and go long some EURHUF             with stop below 301. Initial tgt             309-310.

It will be very important to see wether ERURHUF can make a higher high in coming months. As if it can't, later the next attempt to break the long term trendline will succed. please also note that the future Kumo made a bearish cross (26 weeks ahead), and future Senkou B is lower now. I think 313,50 - 316 will be a strong resistance on the top side.
Thanks for sharing, will take a look.
Reply
Kumowizard PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
One more thing to add. Maybe it is wise to wait until today mkt close, as S&P Agency revision on hungary is due today. Last time (few weeks ago) Moody's did not change the rating and the outlook, I think S&P will leave it as it is too... but you can never know.
Reply
15 bps rate cut did not matter. EURHUF lower after NBH decision. More info expected from President of NBH on press conference this afternoon.
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