Let's check the technicals!
- Price tried to break the long term (since 2008) and the weekly Kumo three times during last few weeks. But until no close below , Kumo and horizontal line (means no lower low) the trend break and reversal attempt will be only a false signal.
- Weekly setup is neutral: Price in the cloud, Chikou SPan is below past candles but above the Kumo. Tenkan/Kijun has been in weak cross for some time, but both averages are still above Kumo top.
- Heikin Ashi candle for this week is rather , but as you see the last three candles (including recent one) rather express undecision with down-up-down pattern.
- Weekly key reversal would be a spike or close above 307,45 with haDelta/SMA3 confirmation above zero line
- setup can slowly turn back to neutral. Actually due to increased vol Tenkan/Kijun is in weak cross
- Price tried to break the lower resistance of 302,50-302,75, but all the three attempts failed.
- Heikin Ashi candle today signals a reversal, haDelta/SMA3 cross increases the chance for more move in coming days.
- Daily key level is at the Tenkan/Kijun/Trendline conjunction: appr. 305-305,50, but with a close above 306 the space will be open to 310 or maybe even to 313 again.
- Watch Chikou Span cross for confirmation later.
Close shorts and go long some EURHUF with stop below 301. Initial tgt 309-310.
It will be very important to see wether ERURHUF can make a higher high in coming months. As if it can't, later the next attempt to break the long term will succed. please also note that the future Kumo made a cross (26 weeks ahead), and future Senkou B is lower now. I think 313,50 - 316 will be a strong resistance on the top side.