EURHUF - NBH rate setting meeting in focus

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Hungarian Central Bank will have MPC             rte setting meeting next Tuesday. Most of analysts expect the NBH to re-start (continue) its easing cycle in some form, as most of the central banks do globally. Polish Central Bank cut base rate a few weeks ago, Hungarian will likely follow them and all the others.

Let's check the technicals!

- Price tried to break the long term trend line (since 2008) and the weekly Kumo three times during last few weeks. But until no close below Trendline , Kumo and horizontal line (means no lower low) the trend break and reversal attempt will be only a false signal.
- Weekly Ichimoku setup is neutral: Price in the cloud, Chikou SPan is below past candles but above the Kumo. Tenkan/Kijun has been in weak bearish cross for some time, but both averages are still above Kumo top.
- Heikin Ashi candle for this week is rather bearish , but as you see the last three candles (including recent one) rather express undecision with down-up-down pattern.
- Weekly bullish key reversal would be a spike or close above 307,45 with haDelta/SMA3 confirmation above zero line

- Ichimoku setup can slowly turn back to neutral. Actually due to increased vol             Tenkan/Kijun is in weak bullish cross
- Price tried to break the lower resistance of 302,50-302,75, but all the three attempts failed.
- Heikin Ashi candle today signals a bullish reversal, haDelta/SMA3 cross increases the chance for more bullish move in coming days.
- Daily key level is at the Tenkan/Kijun/Trendline conjunction: appr. 305-305,50, but with a close above 306 the space will be open to 310 or maybe even to 313 again.
- Watch Chikou Span cross for confirmation later.

Close shorts and go long some EURHUF             with stop below 301. Initial tgt             309-310.

It will be very important to see wether ERURHUF can make a higher high in coming months. As if it can't, later the next attempt to break the long term trendline will succed. please also note that the future Kumo made a bearish cross (26 weeks ahead), and future Senkou B is lower now. I think 313,50 - 316 will be a strong resistance on the top side.
IvanLabrie PRO
2 years ago
Thanks for sharing, will take a look.
Kumowizard PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
One more thing to add. Maybe it is wise to wait until today mkt close, as S&P Agency revision on hungary is due today. Last time (few weeks ago) Moody's did not change the rating and the outlook, I think S&P will leave it as it is too... but you can never know.
Kumowizard PRO
2 years ago
15 bps rate cut did not matter. EURHUF lower after NBH decision. More info expected from President of NBH on press conference this afternoon.
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