Kumowizard

EURHUF - Some interesting changes in technicals!

FX:EURHUF   None
43 0 2
Despite fundamentally HUF             is the weakest chain among EM ccys, technically we have interesting change now which we have to pay attention to!
Daily: DMI crossed bearish , MACD has had massive negative divergence for some time now, Tenkan/Kijun printed a bearish cross (weak sell signal as happened above the Kumo), the higher lows of the chanel (which is the same as the 4 Hrs             uptrend line) is broken too, and price started to penetrate the Kumo. Future Kumo started to point down. The horizontal 308 support is still there, and also it is oversold on 4 Hrs             ( Stoch turning up). Trading is always about the probabilities, so let's see what each side can expect.
Bulls: if you want to go Long from 308-308,50, well it may be ok, but Place your stops tight, 307,50-307,75. Another Long strategy can be to wait and see if price comes lower into the Kumo retesting 305 levels, and in line with daily Slow Stoch turning up, swing buy only from that level, with tgt             310-311, keeping in mind that price will start a Kumo consolidation.
Bears: Wait for a bounce back to 311,50-312, and look for shorts setup only there

My feelings: if price breaks below 308, that means Chikou Span will drop below price candles too. From that point the range will be gone, and price very likely enter a new range 305-310 and starts consolidation in the Kumo. Since the Kumo is thick enough I don't think it can quickly drop to 303 trend support. Anyway, playing bullish trades, betting on the current range to stay, has a lot more risk from now, so trade it only with half units. My bias somehow turned a bit more bearish on this cross (i.e. HUF             to perform better). Sure enough, this cross was never easy to trade, but from now it will be even more difficult.
All in all, I decrease my 100 % bullish bias, that I have kept since 297-300 levels.
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