Kumowizard

EURHUF - NBH rate decision today, elections on 6th/April

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Again, it was ok, to buy at 310-311, on the bottom of the range (flag). But as you can see on daily chart , price action is not so agressive recently, volatility decreased a bit. Indicators are mixed, really like a studycase of a sideaway mkt, so the odds are not good either, I do not see a good risk reward at current 313 level to bet in any directions. Long we must still believe in bullish move, until daily Ichimoku setup and the major trend is not changing. However short term I would wait. There's Nat             . Bank of hungary has a rate setting MPC             meeting today. In my previous EURHUF             posts I have written quite some about macro and the NBH's behaviour as well. Market expectiation is another 10 bps             cut. The only change in communication since last meeting was that 2 of the MPC             members told the press, that from now they should be a lot more cautious with rate cuts in the future, as the upside for the economy could be a lot more limited with more cuts, than the downside effect coming from the low rates and all time low bond yields in case risks grow on global financial mkts. This is joke for me, as A) Hungary (the National Bank) has already applied a dual interest rate policy with the base rate being continously higher than their lending rate for SMB corporations (that is 2,5 % max.) + Hungary has been issuing a lot of coupon premium structured bonds for the households ( inflation linked, or T-Bill+coupon premium) which provides a lot higher (2,5 - 3 %) yield above current HUF             depo             rates for retail clients and above short term T-Bills. Well on one hand they really need to increase households' savings, as at current bond yield levels international investors holdings been dropping sharply (risk premia on Hungary is not attractive enough), but on the other hand this shrinks the countries banking system, and kills its profitability and stability further. Meanwhile Hungary's Debt to GDP has soared again to a record high level, with a really high stake of foreign ccy denominated debt in it. So sorry for the long speach, but I think these factors are very important to see how vulnarable the HUF             can become in the future. I think NBH should really stop cutting rates or they box themselves into a corner where finally they might suffer a KO             later this year.... or is the final aim of policy makers to let EURHUF             fly above 320-325 after elections?
So chances for today: with no rate cut EURHUF             will quickly drop to 309-310 support. If rate cut happens 315 will block the spike anyway, as I still have the feeling NBH is on the top, selling into it before elections. (optically not good to see a high EURHUF             and thus an even higher Debt to GDP during the campaign). If anything, I would still sell the top of the range in case, and maybe that's gonna be the last sell of this level... EURHUF             will either blow up in 2-3 weeks or will break lower to 302-305.
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