A possible top signal within neutral Ichimoku + macro thoughts
This post is just an addition to my morning charts published on Twitter, in which I called for a possible top. (at 310,40 spot price then).
In this chart you can the setup with Heikin-Ashi indicators.
- Ichimoku is neutral. Price is at the equilibrium level at Kumo supp/res, but forward Kumo still has a bearish bias and Kijun Sen (26 days average) still points down.
- Heikin-Ashi may print an inside body candle today, with both upper and lower wicks. haOscillator and haDelta+ are about to cross down -> can be indication for a local top.
- EWO is neutral.
- MACD signal is: bearish consolidation (fast line is above signal line, but both are well below zero center line)
I already sold some in the morning based on my prev. Twitter post. Looking for a firm Heikin-Ashi sell signal to add to the position. (approximately with a confirmed close below 309,25)
p.s.: Some macro. I talked to friend of mine, who is a very smart macro analyst and pro investor, with excellent knowledge of Hungarian economy. After our discussion, I have a serious impression. With all my respect to all other market analysts, and to National Bank of Hungary staff calculation, I really think they all undershoot possible inflation targets for 2017! Inflation is going to be much higher, and will hit in sooner than they all expect. Our bet is a 3 % headline already by mid of the year! -> if this will be the case, without any reaction in rates, The Nat. Bank of Hungary will minimum stop adding to non-conventional easing, while C/A surplus will still be relatively high this year. -> supportive for HUF, and EURHUF possibly will reach 290-295.
In this chart you can the setup with Heikin-Ashi indicators.
- Ichimoku is neutral. Price is at the equilibrium level at Kumo supp/res, but forward Kumo still has a bearish bias and Kijun Sen (26 days average) still points down.
- Heikin-Ashi may print an inside body candle today, with both upper and lower wicks. haOscillator and haDelta+ are about to cross down -> can be indication for a local top.
- EWO is neutral.
- MACD signal is: bearish consolidation (fast line is above signal line, but both are well below zero center line)
I already sold some in the morning based on my prev. Twitter post. Looking for a firm Heikin-Ashi sell signal to add to the position. (approximately with a confirmed close below 309,25)
p.s.: Some macro. I talked to friend of mine, who is a very smart macro analyst and pro investor, with excellent knowledge of Hungarian economy. After our discussion, I have a serious impression. With all my respect to all other market analysts, and to National Bank of Hungary staff calculation, I really think they all undershoot possible inflation targets for 2017! Inflation is going to be much higher, and will hit in sooner than they all expect. Our bet is a 3 % headline already by mid of the year! -> if this will be the case, without any reaction in rates, The Nat. Bank of Hungary will minimum stop adding to non-conventional easing, while C/A surplus will still be relatively high this year. -> supportive for HUF, and EURHUF possibly will reach 290-295.
