What does the long term weekly chart and Heikin-Ashi price action tell us?
- setup is turning as forward Kumo is biased now.
- Price has been trading below Kijun Sen and forward Kumo, as weeks will pass by, it will move below spot Kumo too.
- Chikou Span is below past Kumo now! Last time it happened was Sept-Oct/2014 (2 years ago). On next price dip it will enter open space.
- As you see, 306 is the most important lower key supp/res level. Once it breaks on weekly basis, the bearsih trend will extend to target 286-290
- Heikin-Ashi signal is very important. For now it shows market started some consolidation after initial break of and structure. If you zoom in, you will see recent candle is small green, haDelta crossed up, but its SMA3 and haOscillator are still below zero line
- EWO is but ticked up a bit, is , but histogram suggests some more seideaway price action is possible.
All together I think from this point we have to consider EURHUF as a longer term short candidate, but we do not have to rush selling into it. As very likely we'll see few weeks of sideaway consolidation, or maybe even pull backs to 310-311 to retest 100wma spot Kumo and broken , we have to try selling it on spikes first. Later, if 306 really breaks, we can add to shorts at lower price too.
more or less I was long EURHUF for the last 5 years. I had my view on Hungarian ccy, but I do not have it any more. Hungary is a lot less vulnerable to external shocks now, their funding is rock solid, and well yes, there are some political noise sometimes, but that is only theater, nothing else :-). Some says politics may deteriorate real economy and cause structural problems during next 3-4 years. Well OK, my answer as a trendfollower trader is: who cares??? I don't want to, and can not trade based on beliefs and views for 3-4 years ahead. I can only try to trade market price action for 2-9 months ahead.