Kumowizard

5 and 8 years bullish trendlines are broken

FX_IDC:EURHUF   EURO / FORINT
51 0 4
In last two months EURHUF             managed to break major bullish trendlines . This doesn't mean necessarely it will collapse and start a bearish trend right now. As National Bank of Hungary is still interested in a rather weaker ccy, probably they will do some further steps to counter sudden HUF             appreciation. On the other side there is serious and increasing wage pressure in Hungary, which may end up in a wage-price spiral next year, sending inflation much higher from 2017. Of course NBH will not react to that, they will happily tolerate a deep negative real rate. However there is one other bullish HUF             factor, which NBH can not really fight: that is the flow from the still extreme positive C/A.

What does the long term weekly chart and Heikin-Ashi price action tell us?

- Ichimoku setup is turning bearish as forward Kumo is bearish biased now.
- Price has been trading below Kijun Sen and forward Kumo, as weeks will pass by, it will move below spot Kumo too.
- Chikou Span is below past Kumo now! Last time it happened was Sept-Oct/2014 (2 years ago). On next price dip it will enter open bearish space.
- As you see, 306 is the most important lower key supp/res level. Once it breaks on weekly basis, the bearsih trend will extend to target 286-290

- Heikin-Ashi signal is very important. For now it shows market started some consolidation after initial bearish break of trendlines and Ichimoku structure. If you zoom in, you will see recent candle is small green, haDelta crossed up, but its SMA3 and haOscillator are still below zero line
- EWO is bearish but ticked up a bit, MACD is bearish , but histogram suggests some more seideaway price action is possible.

All together I think from this point we have to consider EURHUF             as a longer term short candidate, but we do not have to rush selling into it. As very likely we'll see few weeks of sideaway consolidation, or maybe even pull backs to 310-311 to retest 100wma spot Kumo and broken trendlines , we have to try selling it on spikes first. Later, if 306 really breaks, we can add to shorts at lower price too.

Note:
more or less I was long EURHUF             for the last 5 years. I had my bearish view on Hungarian ccy, but I do not have it any more. Hungary is a lot less vulnerable to external shocks now, their funding is rock solid, and well yes, there are some political noise sometimes, but that is only theater, nothing else :-). Some says politics may deteriorate real economy and cause structural problems during next 3-4 years. Well OK, my answer as a trendfollower trader is: who cares??? I don't want to, and can not trade based on beliefs and views for 3-4 years ahead. I can only try to trade market price action for 2-9 months ahead.
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