On the left hand side I outlined the weekly chart, on the right hand side I explained my thought process that I had at that time, and my thought process looking in hindsight at this daily chart. What great traders we would all be if we could find a broker that lets us take trades in the middle of the chart, as Dr. Elder likes to say.
If the daily chart is too crowded, check these dates for each number so it will be easier for you to follow the chart :
1 - 12.12.2014
2 - 08.12.2014
3 - 17.12.2014
4 - 02.01.2014
What I did not explain on the chart is the fundamental picture at that time. Until point 2, I was short JPY via USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY because on the 14th prime minister Abe had elections to consolidate his power. The rationale behind this trade was that Abe was going to make promises regarding the measures he is going to take and that real money will sell the yen, plus the dollar was extremely strong during that time. This was not my forecast, I follow a very smart individual who puts this puzzles together and makes some great scenarios. Ok, so everything worked out, the yen weakened further, and on 08th of December, 4 days before the election, a great shorting signal occurred. Besides the fact that the shorting signal was so strong and obvious, the fundamental picture was aligning too. The parabolic move of the yen had to stop somewhere, and the time to do that was just before the elections, when traders would start taking profits. The elections was a clear buy the rumor sell the fact trade, only that this time the selling was being done before the fact. I am saying this again, this was a clear short from every possible way you look at it, and it was a clear short at point 4, on 02.01.2014, when it started breaking down, only this time the short would not be counter trend.
If the daily chart is too crowded, check these dates for each number so it will be easier for you to follow the chart :
1 - 12.12.2014
2 - 08.12.2014
3 - 17.12.2014
4 - 02.01.2014
What I did not explain on the chart is the fundamental picture at that time. Until point 2, I was short JPY via USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY because on the 14th prime minister Abe had elections to consolidate his power. The rationale behind this trade was that Abe was going to make promises regarding the measures he is going to take and that real money will sell the yen, plus the dollar was extremely strong during that time. This was not my forecast, I follow a very smart individual who puts this puzzles together and makes some great scenarios. Ok, so everything worked out, the yen weakened further, and on 08th of December, 4 days before the election, a great shorting signal occurred. Besides the fact that the shorting signal was so strong and obvious, the fundamental picture was aligning too. The parabolic move of the yen had to stop somewhere, and the time to do that was just before the elections, when traders would start taking profits. The elections was a clear buy the rumor sell the fact trade, only that this time the selling was being done before the fact. I am saying this again, this was a clear short from every possible way you look at it, and it was a clear short at point 4, on 02.01.2014, when it started breaking down, only this time the short would not be counter trend.