lleong3

The Samurai Draghi's Joust: A "Don't-Go-Broke" Thesis for Going

Long
lleong3 Updated   
FX:EURJPY   Euro / Japanese Yen
Behold, brave knights and fair dames of Tradingview, here's a daring foray into the cryptic labyrinth of forex markets. A quest as enticing as the Siren's song, but fear not, for this tale is not as perilous as those charted by unfortunate souls who dared short GameStop. Pull out your noble steeds (or, in this case, your trading platforms), and let's gallop into the thrilling landscape of the EURJPY.

Now, many of you might be wondering, "Why in Satoshi Nakamoto's name would we be trading the Euro against the Yen?" Well, my dear diamond hands, that's because we're staring at a potential Lambo party - the kind where you might just get to turn a crisp profit without squeezing shorts tighter than your gym shorts after the quarantine.

Macro-level Contextual Tapestries

Firstly, let's get this out there - Europe has been flexing its economic biceps recently. With significant green recovery plans and an infrastructure investment program that makes the Eiffel Tower look like a Lego project, the Eurozone is poised to rise like a phoenix (not the Fawkes type for Harry Potter fans, the growth type). The ECB has been playing the monetary policy game better than a seasoned Dungeons & Dragons master, maintaining an inflation target as finely balanced as a ballet dancer on a tightrope.

Meanwhile, over in the Land of the Rising Sun, Japan has been facing economic headwinds that'd make even a typhoon blanch. An aging demographic that's graying faster than George Clooney, coupled with a stubbornly stagnant inflation rate, has made the Bank of Japan's quest to stimulate growth as challenging as finding a Charizard in your first Pokémon pack.

The Fundamentals Don't Lie, Except When They Do (But Not Here)

The fundamentals are in our favor, too, more than a double cheeseburger at 2 a.m. after a long night out.

The Eurozone's inflation is starting to tick up, fueled by increased consumer spending, recovering tourism, and a global commodity price rally. These factors are likely to nudge the ECB towards a more hawkish stance, potentially leading to an interest rate hike. Higher interest rates? Stronger currency. That's Investing 101, right up there with "Don't buy high and sell low."

On the flip side, Japan’s CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) has been flatter than a pancake on Shrove Tuesday. This chronic deflation scenario has kept the BOJ’s hands tied, forcing them to keep their interest rates lower than a limbo stick at a beach party. With little sign of this changing, the Yen's about as likely to strengthen as a stick of butter in a hot frying pan.

A Meme Dream Team

To put it simply, we're looking at a potential "Stonks go up" situation here for EURJPY. If the Euro strengthens (courtesy of our friend Inflation making a long-awaited comeback tour) and the Yen weakens (thanks to Japan's ongoing economic Netflix drama), we might be on track to see the EURJPY go to the moon.

Of course, the forex market can be as unpredictable as a cat on catnip. So remember, while the macro and fundamental stars seem to be aligning in our favor, always do your own research, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Keep those hands diamond-strong, and may the forex odds be ever in your favor!

(Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. It's a whimsical, humor-filled take on the potential future of the EURJPY. Always do your due diligence before investing. The market can move in mysterious ways.)
Comment:
On the news front, the only downside to this trade was:

The EURJPY currency pair has been strengthening in the morning session due to risk-off sentiment caused by a lack of progress in U.S. debt-ceiling talks between President Biden and Congress. This has caused the Japanese Yen to strengthen against most G-10 and Asian currencies.

Now that the debt talks are over, we should see the continuation of the bullish trend.
Comment:
For those that took the position yesterday, this is a decent spot to take partial profits.

I planned to close the position at $153 with a tiny moon bag to trail.
Comment:
Key target profit level hit for the week. It is a good time to bag some profits for those who do not want the weekend risk. Otherwise, planning to hold until macro news or momentum shifts.

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