Glad we all managed to make some on the eurusd trade yesterday at 1.08298, with the ECB offering a bazooka purchasing bonds with a minimum one year maturity including those with yields below deposit rate (-40bps).
EURUSD has begun its move toward parity in coming months, most likely before the French Elections. If anything the ECB policy meeting yesterday confirms that stance. Whilst mapping out the political landscape with Netherlands election in March, France April/May and Merkel losing ground to populist parties. An election in Italy should not be ruled out either given the limits on the banking system particularly stemming from Italy.
Technically speaking, selling rallies into previous areas like this are a nice play, it is possible that we have missed the eurjpy move coming close with no cigar. It is also expected for those who are in the 1.08x shorts on eurusd that we will see a pullback, staying short and selling rallies is a good play where FOMC will be raising rates.
The model is implying a large trend change will come in January 2017 so paying attention to events ahead will be imperative moving forward.
Likes and comments are always appreciated, and please expect me to go on about my euro parity call for so long once we get there :)