tommaso.gino
Short

Wait for a BIG SHORT on EUR/JPY

FX:EURJPY   Euro Fx/Japanese Yen
As the graph analysis can show the pair has been trending in very nice downside trend-channel since June 2015 and the levels provided by the Fibonacci retracement , which I have applied from the peak of December 2014 to the low of April             2015 (around 126.100), seem to offer relevant level of support/resistance .

I personally entered in a long position on 11/01/2016 from 127.00, which represents the bottom of my trend channel with target 130.000 ( NEVER BE TO GREEDY WHEN YOU GO AGAINST THE TREND) taking a nice +2.40% on January 28th.

However what I am really looking for is to go short at the top of the trend at 133.000 which is a really strong level for 3 main reasons:
1)psychological level (round number)
2)top of a downside trend-channel
3)consistent support/resistance level throughout 2015

As we can see around 132.000 we also have the 75% level of the Fibonacci retracement which represent another good resistance level . Thus my personal recommendation is to enter the short position around this 132.000 level with a not too big order and then wait and see whether the pair will reach the 133.000 and then enter a bigger short position. From there a reasonable target will be the bottom of the trend, just about 126.000 which will represent for sure a very important support level since it is also the lowest point the pair reached since 2013             .

From the point of view of fundamentals, the recent cut of B.o.J. in the rate at which banks can deposit their excess in reserves, which just became negative -0.1%, in order to try to keep up with inflation , will probably lead to a depreciation of the JPY which would be very nice for my strategy.
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