As the graph analysis can show the pair has been trending in very nice downside trend-channel since June 2015 and the levels provided by the Fibonacci retracement, which I have applied from the peak of December 2014 to the low of April 2015 (around 126.100), seem to offer relevant level of support/resistance.
I personally entered in a long position on 11/01/2016 from 127.00, which represents the bottom of my trend channel with target 130.000 ( NEVER BE TO GREEDY WHEN YOU GO AGAINST THE TREND) taking a nice +2.40% on January 28th.
However what I am really looking for is to go short at the top of the trend at 133.000 which is a really strong level for 3 main reasons:
1)psychological level (round number)
2)top of a downside trend-channel
3)consistent support/resistance level throughout 2015
As we can see around 132.000 we also have the 75% level of the Fibonacci retracement which represent another good resistance level. Thus my personal recommendation is to enter the short position around this 132.000 level with a not too big order and then wait and see whether the pair will reach the 133.000 and then enter a bigger short position. From there a reasonable target will be the bottom of the trend, just about 126.000 which will represent for sure a very important support level since it is also the lowest point the pair reached since 2013.
From the point of view of fundamentals, the recent cut of B.o.J. in the rate at which banks can deposit their excess in reserves, which just became negative -0.1%, in order to try to keep up with inflation, will probably lead to a depreciation of the JPY which would be very nice for my strategy.
I personally entered in a long position on 11/01/2016 from 127.00, which represents the bottom of my trend channel with target 130.000 ( NEVER BE TO GREEDY WHEN YOU GO AGAINST THE TREND) taking a nice +2.40% on January 28th.
However what I am really looking for is to go short at the top of the trend at 133.000 which is a really strong level for 3 main reasons:
1)psychological level (round number)
2)top of a downside trend-channel
3)consistent support/resistance level throughout 2015
As we can see around 132.000 we also have the 75% level of the Fibonacci retracement which represent another good resistance level. Thus my personal recommendation is to enter the short position around this 132.000 level with a not too big order and then wait and see whether the pair will reach the 133.000 and then enter a bigger short position. From there a reasonable target will be the bottom of the trend, just about 126.000 which will represent for sure a very important support level since it is also the lowest point the pair reached since 2013.
From the point of view of fundamentals, the recent cut of B.o.J. in the rate at which banks can deposit their excess in reserves, which just became negative -0.1%, in order to try to keep up with inflation, will probably lead to a depreciation of the JPY which would be very nice for my strategy.