Mart_Rosenfeldt

RISK ON, SHORT EURNOK for long term trade

Short
FX:EURNOK   Euro / Norwegian Krone
Hello fellow traders,
I expect all major markets to trade RISK ON since the FED announced QE 4, ECB starting QE ETERNITY, which is EUR negative, Brexit deal was just announced and optimism over a trade deal between the United States and China has ebbed.
Comment: The algos are still shorting NOK while most other risk-on currencies (AUD, NZD and SEK even) have risen considerably, making this trade less appealing.
Comment: The algos new-found love for the EURO is still pushing this pair up, most likely it will have a big move up the next coming days and come crashing down right after as the ECB QE is starting November 1st.
Comment: Oil is rising, risk-on currencies are rising and safe havens falling, EURNOK is still going higher even though it is considered risk-on trade. It seems the big banks and macro hedge funds know something that others dont.
Comment: Bulls are very confident at the current levels and seems like there is no profit taking so I would not enter right now and would even downsize the trade if you're in it.
Comment: Zooming in there seems to be nothing stopping the bulls, there's a parliament ruling on Brexit on Saturday so probably a big gap up/down will occur when markets open on Sunday night.
Comment: Oil has moved up, but there is no effect on the NOK price and if there is any oil weakness coming I expect this pair to move higher, so the short thesis is invalid for now.
Comment: There is a pretty good reason to think we just put in the high for EURNOR after Draghi's recent remark about overstretched valuations in Europe and a sharp rejection.

Comment: EURNOK broke through support and might find the next support zone at 10.15, but the way price action has been past few weeks, it will continue to drop for a couple of days straight.

Comments

Any update
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It does not show any sign of weekness, Im starting to get worried.
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