Fundamentals:
Euro neutral:
For the moment, the euro zone is in a transitional period between its double-dip recession and its economic recovery. There is optimistic sentiment created by the situation getting better each week in Germany + the vaccine roll out accelerating. On the other hand, 2021 Q1 GDP for Germany was negative and worse than expected. Economy is still in contraction but getting better slowly but surely. ECB members are getting more hawkish since last week and they hiked their 2021-22 economic data forecasts.
For the moment, I would say that I have a more neutral bias on the Euro because the data are mixed.
NZD positive:
Well, there is nothing negative to say really about NZ. US and global recovery increases the demand for metals, dairy products and other metals, which is a positive outlook for AUD and NZD as prices are increasing with demand. Housing market is booming in NZ and commodity prices are hitting new records highs month after month, for the 9th month in a row.
Based on this, I chose to pair EUR and NZD to open a short position until the fundamental situations shift.
Market sentiment:
My entry price is based on a confluence of multiple structure levels but more importantly on the retail-noobs next move and on the institutional traders next move.
1. My sell limit is based on the -27,2% extension from the last bullish impulsive move, which will be the profit taking price for the institutional buyers. (that will become sellers)
2. My sell limit is also based on the fact that retail-noobs will start to activate their buy stops or market buys as soon as the top will be breached. My SL is large enough to handle the stophunt if it happens. If my SL is hit, that means that the setup is no longer valid.
Conclusion:
My sell limit is placed @ 1.70350 but I want the market to touch this price AND MY PURPLE CIRCLE. No purple circle, no trade. If the timing and the price are not triggered at the same time, I will remove my sell limit.
Daily tip: Put your order limit, close your eyes and enjoy your day.
Euro neutral:
For the moment, the euro zone is in a transitional period between its double-dip recession and its economic recovery. There is optimistic sentiment created by the situation getting better each week in Germany + the vaccine roll out accelerating. On the other hand, 2021 Q1 GDP for Germany was negative and worse than expected. Economy is still in contraction but getting better slowly but surely. ECB members are getting more hawkish since last week and they hiked their 2021-22 economic data forecasts.
For the moment, I would say that I have a more neutral bias on the Euro because the data are mixed.
NZD positive:
Well, there is nothing negative to say really about NZ. US and global recovery increases the demand for metals, dairy products and other metals, which is a positive outlook for AUD and NZD as prices are increasing with demand. Housing market is booming in NZ and commodity prices are hitting new records highs month after month, for the 9th month in a row.
Based on this, I chose to pair EUR and NZD to open a short position until the fundamental situations shift.
Market sentiment:
My entry price is based on a confluence of multiple structure levels but more importantly on the retail-noobs next move and on the institutional traders next move.
1. My sell limit is based on the -27,2% extension from the last bullish impulsive move, which will be the profit taking price for the institutional buyers. (that will become sellers)
2. My sell limit is also based on the fact that retail-noobs will start to activate their buy stops or market buys as soon as the top will be breached. My SL is large enough to handle the stophunt if it happens. If my SL is hit, that means that the setup is no longer valid.
Conclusion:
My sell limit is placed @ 1.70350 but I want the market to touch this price AND MY PURPLE CIRCLE. No purple circle, no trade. If the timing and the price are not triggered at the same time, I will remove my sell limit.
Daily tip: Put your order limit, close your eyes and enjoy your day.
Trade active:
Sell limit got triggered.
We can see some buyer power. This will bring some buying sentiment to the market. If institutions are really on the same side as me, they will sell this buyers liquidity and create the next impulse down.
My first alert is at 1,70000. When the price will touch this level, I will move my stoploss to entry price. If the there is a considerable price reaction on this level, I will take out some partial profits too.
We can see some buyer power. This will bring some buying sentiment to the market. If institutions are really on the same side as me, they will sell this buyers liquidity and create the next impulse down.
My first alert is at 1,70000. When the price will touch this level, I will move my stoploss to entry price. If the there is a considerable price reaction on this level, I will take out some partial profits too.
Comment:
Here is my checkpoint levels, where I will manage my trade along the way if it goes in the right direction.
Comment:
Update: 1st checkpoint breached.
My stop loss order is now moved to entry price. This trade is risk free from now on.
The next checkpoint to look at is at 1,69000.
My stop loss order is now moved to entry price. This trade is risk free from now on.
The next checkpoint to look at is at 1,69000.
Trade closed: stop reached:
This position got stopped at break even (entry price).
The price reacted heavily to the FOMC meeting where comments about rate hike were made.
Direction is still right, but I will stay out of the market until further technical entries.
The price reacted heavily to the FOMC meeting where comments about rate hike were made.
Direction is still right, but I will stay out of the market until further technical entries.