Trying EURNZD lower here.
I think the narrative changing for the EUR is starting to affect positioning and we could see some people coming out of their EUR longs. The longs have been built on a hawkish ECB so far which i think could change. We're reaching the peak of ECB rates soon and EUR data has recently surprised to the downside quite a lot, including today. I think EUR CPI data will start to come in lower as well looking at forward looking inflation data from the EU.
The NZD narrative is not amazing but mostly priced in and while there are economic worries NZD still has a very good carry.
rate differentials are pointing much much as well, suggesting we should be near the lows of the past 3 months or so while the pair is near the highs (likely due to the china reopening trade taking a big hit so far this year).
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
I think the narrative changing for the EUR is starting to affect positioning and we could see some people coming out of their EUR longs. The longs have been built on a hawkish ECB so far which i think could change. We're reaching the peak of ECB rates soon and EUR data has recently surprised to the downside quite a lot, including today. I think EUR CPI data will start to come in lower as well looking at forward looking inflation data from the EU.
The NZD narrative is not amazing but mostly priced in and while there are economic worries NZD still has a very good carry.
rate differentials are pointing much much as well, suggesting we should be near the lows of the past 3 months or so while the pair is near the highs (likely due to the china reopening trade taking a big hit so far this year).
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
Comment:
moving stop loss to 1.7928
Comment:
moving stop to breakeven