The is a large one, between 4.26 and 4.237.
The price has been consolidating around 4.26 since Dec. 17. The high of the consolidation is 4.2755 and the low is 4.2528 (small pink ).
The breakout direction for that consolidation could indicate the direction the pair is likely to move over the coming months.
A break lower from the two-week consolidation (small pink ) means the price is still in the , but could keep falling to test the 4.23 region. A continued drop below the indicates a further decline to the next major between 4.16 and 4.13.
A short trade has the added benefit of a positive roll. The Eurozone has 0% interest rates, while Poland has an interest rate of 1.5%.
If the two-week consolidation breaks to the upside, it could be inferred that the large has held and the price will continue oscillating in a large range. Range resistance is 4. 40 to 4.42. If the EUR/PLN rises, that is the target over the next several months.
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