EURSEK - A possible future alternative to switch from EUR
The major trend is still up, but during the last 4 months EURSEK has been moving rather sideaway within the horizontal range and the trend channel. It had a false break of the trendline in October, followed by a spike up, espec after Riksbank unexpectedly cut base rate.
Ichimoku lines are flat, Chikou Span is hitting Price candles too, MACD has no clear signal either. Tenkan is still below Kijun Sen and for last few days Price action is refusing each spikes above Kijun Sen. (Actually I think all these spikes were proxy moves due to NOK weakness). ADX is very low too. All in all for now it is all just moving sideaways, the bullish trend has lost its momentum.
The support and resistance levels are getting more and more important now. If you zoom out, you can see the upper resistance is exactly at the double top highs of 2011. However the lower levels are getting even more important. By the end 2014 - beginning of 2015 the trendline and Kumo bottom (Senkou B) will stay together. In case EUR will remain under pressure, this support area (marked with the rectangle) might be attacked and finally a trend reversal could take place. Keep in mind, that both classic trend break and reversal theory and Ichimoku Kumo breakout strategy requires a confirmation in form of a lower low, or say a break of previous horizontal low. So the first short entry point would come around 9,14 - 9,1450, the second below 9,07.
For now this is just a food for thought, not a firm trade recommendation as it is defenately not yet time to go short, but this chart will be defenately interesting to follow if you stay bearish on EUR.
Ichimoku lines are flat, Chikou Span is hitting Price candles too, MACD has no clear signal either. Tenkan is still below Kijun Sen and for last few days Price action is refusing each spikes above Kijun Sen. (Actually I think all these spikes were proxy moves due to NOK weakness). ADX is very low too. All in all for now it is all just moving sideaways, the bullish trend has lost its momentum.
The support and resistance levels are getting more and more important now. If you zoom out, you can see the upper resistance is exactly at the double top highs of 2011. However the lower levels are getting even more important. By the end 2014 - beginning of 2015 the trendline and Kumo bottom (Senkou B) will stay together. In case EUR will remain under pressure, this support area (marked with the rectangle) might be attacked and finally a trend reversal could take place. Keep in mind, that both classic trend break and reversal theory and Ichimoku Kumo breakout strategy requires a confirmation in form of a lower low, or say a break of previous horizontal low. So the first short entry point would come around 9,14 - 9,1450, the second below 9,07.
For now this is just a food for thought, not a firm trade recommendation as it is defenately not yet time to go short, but this chart will be defenately interesting to follow if you stay bearish on EUR.