Kumowizard

EURSEK - Short, and maybe short more later

Short
FX:EURSEK   Euro / Swedish Krona
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1
Daily: Yes, long term it is still bullish trending, but pressure on EUR is increasing, while actually macro numbers coming from Sweden are quite good. Also the technical picture says there is more room to the downside in short term. But can it break even lower and start finally a longer term bearish move?
Indicators:
- Price is still above the current Kumo, but below Kijun Sen and below Senkou B line (that means Future Kumo overshades Price). Chikou span lost its open space.
- Weak Tenkan/Kijun bearsih cross -> bull wave lost momentum
- DMI is closing in, ADX started to decrease -> bullish momentum is decreasing
- MACD is bearish , Slow Stoch is bearish

So far it looks like a swing back in the bullish trend channel. If it will be only a correction again then Price drop should stop somewhere ard 9,28-9,32 area. But if once 9,25 key level is cleared, EURSEK will make a huge bearish reversal with 9,00 and 8,80 in primer focus.

4 Hrs:
Bearish . Looks like each and every Kijun Sen retest is a good sell entry point. DMI-ADX is just about to start increasing, which means the bearish momentum is just starting now. (I think, yesterday spike from 9,3950 to 9,4300 in the afternoon was due to a huge NOKSEK bearish position unwind. Lot of people jumped on the story that NOKSEK should go to/below parity, but with Oil correction NOK quickly reversed and forced NOKSEK stops too.)
Slow Stoch just crossed down again, we may see testing 9,3260 even today.

Comments

Did you do one on USD SEK
Reply
I was thinkong about it, but finally not. My portfolio had a lot of EUR, so I did the EUR hedges instead. USD bullish momentum should decrease a bit, but the USD trend in general and long term bullish. The EUR is in trouble, so I focus now on EUR bearish positions rather.
Reply
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