This week indeed is an important week for EURUSD . Market is looking for a deal for Greece problem. The deal needs to approved before June 31. Today, EZ leaders meet in Rome to discuss about a deal for Greece and most economists hope EZ leaders can reach to positive solution.
Besides Grexit, we should pay attention on following data:
- Markit PMI
- IFO data.
I expect both data would express a meaningful number because recent EZ data very well.
While we couldn't ignore improvement of EZ economy, we shouldn't forget mixed data of US and neutral tone of FED.
This explains why EURUSD rallied from the low near 1.04 to current level 1.14 ; traders feel confidently to turn back to buy EUR cause of good macroeconomy.
I think this trend should continue next week, while FED still persistently refuse providing a clue for first rate hike, BUY EUR is a good solution.
Regarding to US data. Main focus is US GDP and Durable Good Orders. US GDP is a revision data, it could be higher than expect, but I think this data is important, I emphasize on Durable Good Orders; however when I see the Consensus is 0.4% ; I think economists are too optimistic when they introduce the Consensus: I think 0.2% or 0.3% is better than 0.4%
Traders are very hesitative in buying Dollar; I think only a strong data, very strong could encourage they return to LONG posiiton of greenback ; that data should be Payrolls next week; so in this week, I think greenback is mute.
Strong Resistane is at 1.1500
Look at on the chart. I see two things:
- Firstly, the strong ( purple line) : was broken. This is basic TA : break a is BUY opportunity.
I think in the long term, EURUSD could test SMA200 ( black line) I draw on the chart.
- Secondly, I check indicator, moved above 60 : a strong resistance which hold below that level for one month, now I see also broke this resistance. I think is on the way to 70
I HIT A LONG POSITION OF EURUSD AT 1.1350, STOP LOSS AT 1.1260, TAKE PROFIT AT 1.1500
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