EURUSD - Different bias on weekly and daily. Turning point?
Well, it has to break out next week, so for sure we are at a turning point... but which way will it turn?
Honestly, I have no clue at all. Thinking about the possibilities regarding macro picture, Grexit, US employment numbers (yesterday) and possible FED action, I still have the feeling that we have slightly bigger chance to see a bullish action in EURUSD, but this is just a feeling. As a technical trader the only we can and what we should follow is Price action itself.
However this time looking purely at charts we have a very difficult situation, as we have quite a mixed and different picture on weekly and on daily time frames.
Weekly - Looks bearish, but there are still some question marks:
- Price turns down from Kijun Sen, Ichimoku setup has rather bearish bias again.
- Heikin Ashi candle is bearish, haDelta is below SMA3 and Oscillator turned bearish too. However in haDelta there is still some chance to keep the bullish divergence. So as 5 weeks ago, it may happen again that we don't see a weekly follow through after this red candle, but another doji, or bullish candle with price moving higher again.
- We see quite clear support and resistance levels. Lower side is ard 1,0950. Upper side is at horizontal line and Kijun Sen 1,1330. Break through any of these important levels will decide next trending direction.
Daily - Looks neutral, with some initial bullish bias again
- Ichimoku setup is neutral, with still some bullish tone. Price is at Kumo, trades at short term equilibrium level of 1,1100. Chikou Span is still above past candles.
- Price has been moving in a simmetric tightenning triangle, which has to be broken by next week.
- Heikin Ashi today may give early signal for a possible bullish reversal.
One more thought to add: EUR has been extremely strong on all other crosses, shows no fear at all, completely recovered after initial knee jerk seling on Monday. So this whole thing in EURUSD might be rather decided from the USD side. What you can watch here is the change in FED Funds Rate fwd pricing of possible start of tightenning, or the US10Y Treasury spread above BUND.
If I had to chose, I'd say EURUSD Long still has slightly better expected risk-reward from these levels.
Honestly, I have no clue at all. Thinking about the possibilities regarding macro picture, Grexit, US employment numbers (yesterday) and possible FED action, I still have the feeling that we have slightly bigger chance to see a bullish action in EURUSD, but this is just a feeling. As a technical trader the only we can and what we should follow is Price action itself.
However this time looking purely at charts we have a very difficult situation, as we have quite a mixed and different picture on weekly and on daily time frames.
Weekly - Looks bearish, but there are still some question marks:
- Price turns down from Kijun Sen, Ichimoku setup has rather bearish bias again.
- Heikin Ashi candle is bearish, haDelta is below SMA3 and Oscillator turned bearish too. However in haDelta there is still some chance to keep the bullish divergence. So as 5 weeks ago, it may happen again that we don't see a weekly follow through after this red candle, but another doji, or bullish candle with price moving higher again.
- We see quite clear support and resistance levels. Lower side is ard 1,0950. Upper side is at horizontal line and Kijun Sen 1,1330. Break through any of these important levels will decide next trending direction.
Daily - Looks neutral, with some initial bullish bias again
- Ichimoku setup is neutral, with still some bullish tone. Price is at Kumo, trades at short term equilibrium level of 1,1100. Chikou Span is still above past candles.
- Price has been moving in a simmetric tightenning triangle, which has to be broken by next week.
- Heikin Ashi today may give early signal for a possible bullish reversal.
One more thought to add: EUR has been extremely strong on all other crosses, shows no fear at all, completely recovered after initial knee jerk seling on Monday. So this whole thing in EURUSD might be rather decided from the USD side. What you can watch here is the change in FED Funds Rate fwd pricing of possible start of tightenning, or the US10Y Treasury spread above BUND.
If I had to chose, I'd say EURUSD Long still has slightly better expected risk-reward from these levels.
