Reversal Win or Not?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The main trend: Bearrrrr. So clear.
Elliot Count: May be ending a big trend in D1
Trend Line: Test again an again with HH and HL.
Trade Setup:
Long: if the price break the trend line (red) and close above (at least 50% of candle)
Short: if the price fails to break the trend line (red) ==> form a long shadow of candle stick + close below.

Wait and see....