RobertPapon

Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 07.29.15

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Summary Tuesday:
Strengthening of the dollar today was due to profit-taking after reaching yesterday's highs at 1.1129. Additional support for supply was dodarcie to the trend line drawn on the tops of 29 June and 10 July. Today also begins a two-day Fed meeting at which decisions may be adopted about interest rate hikes. Market expectations assume increases in the September deadline.
Minimum recorded at the level of 1.1021.

Economic calendar for Wednesday:
8:00 EUR GfK consumer climate in Germany (Aug)
16:00 USD Sale of real estate in progress (m / m) (Jun)
20:00 USD FOMC Statement

Tomorrow, the calendar does not have too much data but the most important figure of the day will be the FOMC meeting records that may point the way for the dollar in the coming months. Members of the Fed suggested several times recently that there is a chance to raise interest rates (0.35%?). Mystery remains a term in September. If the deadline will be pushed during the euro             will gain. To sum up this year's macroeconomic data from the US, we can conclude that the US economy is worse moments behind him and after a weak first quarter, other data were in line or better than expected. It is worth noting that the project assumed the Fed macroeconomic developments. In addition, it is worth recalling recent statements by Janet Yellen, who confirmed in their speeches that the US economy is ready for the next step which is the rise in interest rates. The question at the moment is whether the increase will take place in September or until late autumn?

The forecast for Wednesday:
On the currency pair EUR / USD has today been reversed and return below the downtrend line. Supply led to a break of support at 1.1065 and then remained below this level. It looks like that: yesterday's breakout was false and a variant of the ongoing correction is still valid. However, tomorrow we will know the Fed's economic projections, which significantly affect the currency pair. Taking this into account, do not suggest to tomorrow only technical analysis . Accordingly, analysis of tomorrow can be considered in two aspects:
The first option involves rapid increase in interest rates (September?). Such information greatly strengthen the dollar and in a sense is consistent with the assumptions of investors. In this case, no problem will break the supply of further support to 1.1029 / 1.0969 / 1.0916 / 1,0865-80. An increase in interest rates will affect the strengthening of the dollar in the broad market and target for EUR / USD will be this year's lows 1.0456. Earlier, the market will have to deal with a zone of support levels at 1,0808-31.

The second variant: the Fed gave at the time of interest rate hikes, which automatically supports the common currency. Here, demand should have no problems with yesterday's attack on the 1.1129 peak and will attempt to go higher. After breaking the resistance level will further aim of 1.1218. In this case, it seems quite real strengthening of the euro             , even to the level of 1.1456 or higher over the next session or weeks.

Tomorrow will flow as data from Germany and the USA but they will have an indirect impact on exchange rate fluctuations, as the market waited records will be the FOMC .

NOTE: Tomorrow's FOMC notes may determine the future direction for the currency pair in a broader horizon.

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