Today, we saw strong growth in around 1.1129. In the first part of the demand a good data from Germany. The Ifo business sentiment index was better than expected, which was a surprise given the recent turmoil with Greece. Then we got to know better US data that has been ignored by the market. Euro at the end of the day it was still strong and hovering around 1.11. The strength of the common currency today once again wonders, especially since today has been to overcome the 1.1065 level demand also led to test the level of 1.1121 which is the 76.4% fibo declines 1,1218-1,0808).
Why the euro is strong at the beginning of the week? On Wednesday we will know the records of the FOMC meeting, which will show how much the Fed is determined to lead to increases in interest rates in September. The market is likely implies a possible increase but at a later date, leading to a sell-off of the dollar. Please note that any information rejecting rate hikes in September will support the euro .
Economic calendar for Tuesday:
15:45 USD PMI index for services (Jul)
16:00 USD Consumer confidence by the Conference Board (Jul)
Forecast for Tuesday:
The situation with the correction strongly became complicated, because on the one hand stepped over the barrier 1.1065 (61.8% fibo recent declines 1,1218-1,0808), on the other hand, it has been to break the downtrend line (red line on the graph) . At the moment the currency pair reached a strong resistance and is fairly heavily subscribed, which may result in the return movement in around 1.1065 (this level is at the moment quite important) If today's output over the we have seen as a wrong move, it's on tomorrow we should go back to around 1.1050 and 1.0969. In this case, a variant of correction is still valid. Good data should support the dollar but on Thursday, the market ignores the information from the US, which can be seen after the power supply whose actions are chaotic.
Otherwise, assumes a slight return movement in the vicinity of 1.1065 and another strong wave of rising in the vicinity of the summit on 7 July. This will mean that the correction has been completed and the currency pair EUR / USD will test the level of 1.1218.