Based on time series interest rate differential-based currency band method and the measured average weighted rates to current EURCHF and EURJPY target zones, the estimated exchange rate target zone for EURUSD is 1000 PIPs of which 1.1800 as actual upper ceiling and the 1.0800 as the estimated lower ceiling. The current monetary price movement to downward by their interest rate differential-based monetary price trend.
At 1,1200 however, the ECB undertook market sterilization and at the same time the CHF carried EUR at 1.1200 EURCHF and the JPY carried EUR at 122.00 EURJPY and to drive the EURUSD to move to upward by the carry trading activity.
The carry trading activity may lifting the EURUSD price to upward (sterilized) to 1.1500 as well as possibly to 1.1800 and depending on the capital inflow into EUR economy by the CHF and JPY. Sterilizing the price to 1.1500 is in compliance to the central banks’ consensus, but lifting to 1.1800 may result possible notification from the IMF/BIS on their monitoring activity, as well as from the US Treasury (in the past such activity popular with the issue of helicopter-money by the European parliamentary panel).
No trading recommendable on EURUSD at this time (long and short at high risk, long versus short hedging trading may result miscalculation on the volatility and at risk) until the EURJPY and EURCHF complete their carry trading activity and they reach their upper ceilings. Thereafter however, short/sell on EURUSD is highly recommendable from the highest level reached by the EURUSD (1.1500/1.1800). There are other currency pairs to be feasible to trade for profit at current market environment (not for fun) and the EURUSD trading environment at risk at current market environment.
At 1,1200 however, the ECB undertook market sterilization and at the same time the CHF carried EUR at 1.1200 EURCHF and the JPY carried EUR at 122.00 EURJPY and to drive the EURUSD to move to upward by the carry trading activity.
The carry trading activity may lifting the EURUSD price to upward (sterilized) to 1.1500 as well as possibly to 1.1800 and depending on the capital inflow into EUR economy by the CHF and JPY. Sterilizing the price to 1.1500 is in compliance to the central banks’ consensus, but lifting to 1.1800 may result possible notification from the IMF/BIS on their monitoring activity, as well as from the US Treasury (in the past such activity popular with the issue of helicopter-money by the European parliamentary panel).
No trading recommendable on EURUSD at this time (long and short at high risk, long versus short hedging trading may result miscalculation on the volatility and at risk) until the EURJPY and EURCHF complete their carry trading activity and they reach their upper ceilings. Thereafter however, short/sell on EURUSD is highly recommendable from the highest level reached by the EURUSD (1.1500/1.1800). There are other currency pairs to be feasible to trade for profit at current market environment (not for fun) and the EURUSD trading environment at risk at current market environment.