Kumowizard
Short

EURUSD - Holiday break... break?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
63 0 0
Daily: MACD gave a sell signal, Slow Stoch bearish too. Price below Kijun again an back into the Kumo Cloud (again into the neutral hesitation zone on daily chart ). What is very important, that Chikou Span is below the price candles now. Senkou B (Kumo bottom - orange line) is has been flat for long time, which mens this is kind of equilibrium level, which likely to attract price. ADX is still super low, so it will be interesting to see how EURUSD             behaves closer to the longer term uptrend line and the flat Kumo bottom.

4 Hrs: SELL! Price action has been obviously very weak recently, failed to trade higher with good momentum in line with the still bullish daily chart . And what do we see today? US believes it's ccy is undervalued against the EUR! Price broke below 100 WMA , which acted as a good support about four times in last few days. Price is just about to break below the 4 Hrs Kumo as well. Future Kumo turned bearish . Slow Stoch down and DMI             crossed bearish with a very low ADX , which in case start climbing, we may see a very quick drop to 1,3720 support.

Strategy: Start/countinue building (or re-building) shorts in 1,3790 - 1,3830 range. Stop above 1,3850.

Initial tgt: No initial target this time. The reason is I can not put on one reasonable which would be still above daily trend line while providing a minimum 1:2 risk/reward ratio. So my idea is just hold this short position, and move the trailing stop lower as time passes and price drops. Then we either get stopped out one more time, but with minor loss or at flat P/L, or we'll make hell lot of money on the trade in case price breaks through all the daily supports left and enters a new bearish trend!

p.s.: Choice prices and "choice mkts" do not persist too long!
p.s.2.: on USDCHF             I am still not in the trade. I wait, maybe we get some better entry level lower, closer to 0,8800.
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