RobertPapon

Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 06.25.15

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Summary Wednesday:
According to yesterday's analysis, today we can include as a correction of yesterday's strong declines. According to the forecast I assumed increases in the vicinity of 1.12 and 1.1240. The maximum we could see at the level of 1.1236 and then saw profit-taking, which caused declines in around 1.1170. It is worth mentioning that the weaker economic data from Germany and the details of the US, which were in line with market consensus. At the moment lasts a meeting of the Eurogroup, which are discussed possible solutions for Greece.

Calendar for Thursday:

8:00 EUR GfK consumer climate in Germany
14:30 USD Core consumer expenditures price index (PCE)
14:30 USD Core consumer spending price index (core PCE)
14:30 USD ascendant declared unemployed
14:30 USD Personal Spending
15:45 USD PMI index for services

Calendar is not too rich in macro data and it is worth noting that tomorrow's data is not crucial for the EUR / USD pair. Tomorrow the market will pay attention to data on unemployment and PMI.

Forecast for Thursday:

Currently we are in the correction of Tuesday's inheritance and strong resistance is the 1.1240 level. I think that there should be no overcoming it, unless late in the evening we will know the new facts on the agreement between Greece and the EU. Personally, I think that none of the parties will not forgive and agreement is not reached. In this case, bankruptcy hanging over the market of Greece and fairly large uncertainty about the further situation in the Euro             zone.
Looking from a purely technical perspective, we can reach conclusions that after today's rally may lead to another wave of strengthening of the dollar. In this case, the supply should head towards levels of 1.1170 and then towards yesterday's low of 1.1134. The ultimate goal should be the support level of 1.1080. (this version would be compatible with the assumption that there was a clearance with a wedge of growth and then after a little adjustment, the supply leads to further declines)

In an alternative version will lead to increases in demand over 1.1240 to should lead to another test of 1.1280 and the recent highs.

Note: in case of positive news from the meeting of the Eurogroup will gain euros.
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