Eyes 50% #Fibonacci Recovery | $EUR $USD #forex

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
2886 23 25

This is one chart that defied the predictive/forecasting model, as evidenced by the older targets left ghosted in the chart. Prior analysis indicated that, while these former targets were defined in the 4-hour timeframe, failure of nominal targets such as TG-Lo and TG-x, as it were, suggests higher-frame interference from heavier (i.e.: institutional) hands, thus forcing the analysis to look into higher timeframe, as we seek to define "who" is in control of price action.

At this point, we remain in a stand-still. Price has obviously hit the higher-frame extreme target at 1.24052, and remained in a tight consolidation pattern ever since.

A higher-high was defined within this consolidation interim at 1.25993. This is the level we are keeping in sight as a possible directional cue.

The larger picture has defined a completion of a Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves Pattern ("WW") completion, as price hit the pattern's Profit Line along the 1-4 projection.


Traders should look for fundamental data to support a $EUR recovery, perhaps on the back of a failing $USD. For now, the technical outlook is favoring a rallying in the order of a 0.500-Fibonacci range, based on the structural relevance of that level from a historical perspective, as well as an implied Scott Carney's Shark Pattern completion, which is typically accompanied by its 5-0 Pattern acolyte.

Note that further price decline remains a possibility, as a larger pattern seeks to complete a terminal Point-5, in terms of Elliott Wave count - Whether this terminal point is already define depends on the current price action. Nonetheless, bias remains bullish based on the confluence of these technical events.

David Alcindor
Predictive & Forecasting Analysis
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

A complex 5th wave continues its time-consumptive development, weaving a symmetry around original 1.24052 target. Rallying into bullish target defined at a 50% reactive rally remains intact and in force.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
hi david, what could change in fundamentals, whicj is indicates this bounce? or just simply TA based?
15 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
$EURUSD mulls #elliottwave ED completion at Point-5 near 1.24052 target:


via @tradingview | $EUR $USD #forex #ECB


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
I think indeed now we are closer to getting out of the down trend
+2 Reply
03 DEC 2014 - Fundamental News:

Central Banks Buying SP-500 Futures Extended Until End Of 2015:

- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/central-bank-buying-sp-500-futures-extended-until-end-2015

If you are wondering what this means to the Forex market, simply look at the correlation between $ES and $USDJPY, and the impact it may have on $EURUSD.

Then, we'll have an idea of what's really driving the $EUR down.

+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
How long you think will be effect from this David?
+1 Reply
It mentions that it would last until end of 2015 - I would expect some control ascent, meaning that retracements might occur in the order of 0.386 to 0.618, in the shape of Elliott Wave's Flats, perhaps. We'll have to see.

+1 Reply
mkdeep04 4xForecaster
Q.. is there any relation- period taken for downmove (a) and period for pullup to (b) say 38.2 or 50%fib??
+1 Reply
mkdeep04 mkdeep04
ie say it takes 2year to form (a) down and (b) up to 50% ?? 1year or ..??
Hello @mkdeep04 - I am not aware of any timing associated with this pattern - David
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