4xForecaster
Long

Eyes 50% #Fibonacci Recovery | $EUR $USD #forex

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2878 23 24
Traders,

This is one chart that defied the predictive/forecasting model, as evidenced by the older targets left ghosted in the chart. Prior analysis indicated that, while these former targets were defined in the 4-hour timeframe, failure of nominal targets such as TG-Lo and TG-x, as it were, suggests higher-frame interference from heavier (i.e.: institutional) hands, thus forcing the analysis to look into higher timeframe, as we seek to define "who" is in control of price action.

At this point, we remain in a stand-still. Price has obviously hit the higher-frame extreme target at 1.24052, and remained in a tight consolidation pattern ever since.

A higher-high was defined within this consolidation interim at 1.25993. This is the level we are keeping in sight as a possible directional cue.

The larger picture has defined a completion of a Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves Pattern ("WW") completion, as price hit the pattern's Profit Line along the 1-4 projection.


OVERALL:

Traders should look for fundamental data to support a $EUR recovery, perhaps on the back of a failing $USD. For now, the technical outlook is favoring a rallying in the order of a 0.500-Fibonacci range, based on the structural relevance of that level from a historical perspective, as well as an implied Scott Carney's Shark Pattern completion, which is typically accompanied by its 5-0 Pattern acolyte.

Note that further price decline remains a possibility, as a larger pattern seeks to complete a terminal Point-5, in terms of Elliott Wave count - Whether this terminal point is already define depends on the current price action. Nonetheless, bias remains bullish based on the confluence of these technical events.


David Alcindor
Predictive & Forecasting Analysis
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
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2use
2 years ago
Indeed i go for a fib retracement, but once i can see a bottom.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 2use
2 years ago
In my view, there are two ways to see a bottom.

Both of them involved looking back

- David
+1 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
2 years ago
It still is testing it and is not away from it for me to see it clearly though, i.e. it may break lower
+1 Reply
2use 2use
2 years ago
Basically what i meant. I use somewhat of a rule when it has to close a higher top, but so far - lower lows
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 2use
2 years ago
@2use - I was just teasing you my friend. Don't let anything separate you from your rules - David
Reply
2use 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I was just caring after you :) look at that touch of 1.23 - looking down to 1.20
+1 Reply
I think we get 1.19's and if that breaks... geeze who know's? 1.09 ? 1.00? .95 ?? this is ultimately good for the EU. Global Tourism is one of the strongest segments of the worse of EU members. Also, of course will improve exports and will eventually lead to more employment.
Reply
JamesTeller66
2 years ago
Hi David. Thanks for sharing the EURUSD chart and I always look forward to your analysis. I looked at your USDCHF chart as well you just shared. On USDCHF, you are still expecting a rally to 0.9800s but your are expecting a reversal on EURUSD. This doesn't align with each other as EURUSD and USDCHF have inverse relationship. So, I am a little confused by the analysis.

Thanks
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO JamesTeller66
2 years ago
Hello @JamesTeller66 - I am posting analysis using the model's data.

still, both imply a potential weakening in $USD, or a potential strengthening of $EUR.

In the $EUR chart, there is no definite bottom yet defined, as implied by 5th wave being ghosted, whereas in $USDCHF, a rallying is expected up to the 1-3-5 Line, and perhaps to higher prime/second position in terms of WW.

Overall, the charts being relative expressions of $USD and inverse to one another, still remain in synch, nonetheless.

Is this what you were talking about?

David Alcindor
Reply
Two Ellioticians, both with the same results.
+2 Reply
Lastin
2 years ago
Wow Great .
Elliottwave combined with Wolfwave but there is possibility to wave 5 extension i am waiting to see strong price signal for entry
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Lastin
2 years ago
Very good idea @Lastin. Leaving a few pips behind for added guarantee is a small insurance premium to pay for a potentially greater rewards - David
+1 Reply
HumbleTraders
2 years ago
Agree but for different reasons. Commitment of traders is maxed out. Extreme levels of bullishness not seen since 2012. I expect another leg down bfore the long term correction can take place


EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-099741
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 11/25/14 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000) OPEN INTEREST: 577,319
COMMITMENTS
59,035 219,349 67,345 412,364 189,317 538,744 476,010 38,575 101,308

CHANGES FROM 11/18/14 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 8,056)
2,802 -4,012 1,734 4,011 7,689 8,547 5,411 -491 2,645

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
10.2 38.0 11.7 71.4 32.8 93.3 82.5 6.7 17.5

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 239)
51 98 65 59 69 148 194
+1 Reply
03 DEC 2014 - Fundamental News:

Central Banks Buying SP-500 Futures Extended Until End Of 2015:

- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-03/central-bank-buying-sp-500-futures-extended-until-end-2015

If you are wondering what this means to the Forex market, simply look at the correlation between $ES and $USDJPY, and the impact it may have on $EURUSD.

Then, we'll have an idea of what's really driving the $EUR down.


David
+2 Reply
nikokoev 4xForecaster
2 years ago
How long you think will be effect from this David?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO nikokoev
2 years ago
It mentions that it would last until end of 2015 - I would expect some control ascent, meaning that retracements might occur in the order of 0.386 to 0.618, in the shape of Elliott Wave's Flats, perhaps. We'll have to see.

David
+1 Reply
mkdeep04 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Q.. is there any relation- period taken for downmove (a) and period for pullup to (b) say 38.2 or 50%fib??
+1 Reply
mkdeep04 mkdeep04
2 years ago
ie say it takes 2year to form (a) down and (b) up to 50% ?? 1year or ..??
Reply
4xForecaster PRO mkdeep04
2 years ago
Hello @mkdeep04 - I am not aware of any timing associated with this pattern - David
Reply
15 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$EURUSD mulls #elliottwave ED completion at Point-5 near 1.24052 target:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $EUR $USD #forex #ECB
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
2use 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I think indeed now we are closer to getting out of the down trend
+2 Reply
19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

A complex 5th wave continues its time-consumptive development, weaving a symmetry around original 1.24052 target. Rallying into bullish target defined at a 50% reactive rally remains intact and in force.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
2 years ago
hi david, what could change in fundamentals, whicj is indicates this bounce? or just simply TA based?
Reply
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