DanV
Long

EURUSD - INTERMIDIATE & LONG TERM BULLIS

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2012 25 9
have held a longer term bullish view on EUR since August after major July low. Now as you can see from the chart there is distinct look of potential Head & Should pattern being developed (as well similar patter in other EUR Pairs), MACD is in positive territory and about to hook up. In the shorter term we could expect some weakness from 1.35-136 area before going higher. Many find it difficult to stay on longer term trend,due to larger position size they hold feeling they want to or need to make more more money with larger size trading in and out. But in reality I feel even if relatively small position was held and managed on longer term trend, they could end up with similar profit to match what they actually achieve otherwise. Anyway, this potential trend if it play out will shock many as they fail to understand why Bankrupt EUROZONE should find should have EUR flying so high. I would well come your feed back or questions if they can add to helpful discussion.
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Since the low of last week we had strong leg up which I consider minor wave iii, and then wens sideways which could be wave iv as flat correction, which should bottom out around 1.3250 area and next leg could likely develop which could shoot to 1.35 are with normal correction on the way. If however we have break down below 1.3250 then we have deeper correction on our hand and my counts may need to be revised. Assuming it hold I am looking for significant top near 1.35-1.36 then deeper pull back lasting several weeks.
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Whilst there continue to be multiple arguments as to which way EUR is headed, regardless of shorter term fluctuation, the trend now is higher over intermediate to longer term. In carrying out my Inter Market Analysis, here is the Chart of VIX the FEAR GAUGE, which for now seems to suggest higher EUR towards important level around 1.35 -1.37. Let me know what you think and whether you find this helpful. Here is the Chart
VIX - THE FEAR INDEX, YOUR GUIDE TO DIRECTIONAL BIAS
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Hi All. Since publishing this chart we have continued the move to the upside progressively. Now we could be reaching an important area 1.35 -1.36 where intermediate top could be formed and some retracement could take place. If however, we accelerate having broken the recent resistance we could even reach 1.37 though, based on the RSI divergence and coiling suggest that a big move could develop. In the context of having risen significantly, the next move could be potential correction, So at 1.35-36 there are important horizontal previous resistance that could come in to play and various Fib confluence to add with the RSI divergence & coiling effect, I suspect we may reach the upside target early in the week and then possibly retrace during latter part of the week, hence to tighten stops or consider partial scaling out for adding back at lower level. The retracement could be relatively modest to be contained around 1.32 area. In addition to the above, here is another version of the daily chart showing the the details noted.
snapshot
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DanV MOD QuantitativeExhaustion
Thanks mate. I appreciate your comment.
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Hi All, the price action since publishing has more than achieved initial target. However before this up cycle is complete there is still possible further upside to retest the recent high or make new higher higher before significant retracement could be expected. To illustrative this I an adding some updates regrading the wave could for the move up to date from July low as shown on the chart. The count for wave s 1 -5 has been updated taking into account the overall Price action since July low and recent high with corresponding reading in the RSI.
snapshot
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In addition to Correlated DAX & EUR chart update shown earlier, in the second chart shows a close up possible correction and new high to around 1.38 area
snapshot
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From the time I posted this chart it has more than achieved the original target market on the chart around 1.3670 so it was successful trade. We have experienced what appears to be normal retracement in major uptrend and still remain longer term Bullish on EURUSD and feel that the retracement could be or will complete shortly. I will post a new update chart along with DXY or separately with my thoughts on likely future price development. Keep a look out. Select to follow me to me notified on new post
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