EURUSD - Maybe a long soon on 4 Hrs... maybe

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
290 4 2
This post is an update for the previous one.

Possible early reversal signals on 4 Hrs             time frame:
- There are higher lowes since the lowest point was hit.
- DMI lines are getting closer to each other, while ADX decreasing. The bearish trend again loosing its power
- there is a weak Tenkan/Kijun Bullish cross (corss happened below the cloud)
- Chikou Span is close to price candles, may cross above (still below Kumo though)
- Slow Stoch cross up again

These signals are not yet firm buy signals for a possible counter trend trade, but they are certanly early warning signals for bears to start closing their shorts.

Note 1: on the daily chart MACD and Slow Stoch turning up again. These indicators have not yet given buy signals, but are pretty close to that. Price is still below the lower line of the regression trend channel.
And most importantly the ADX is at 58! I have seen such strong bullish and bearish moves in terms of pips in EURUSD             , but I have never seen one with such a high ADX . Even the most agressive 1200 pips drop had only a max 50 ADX print. This means that this trend wave was so strong, that it has not had any minor correction since the mid July breakdown at 1,3550. Defenately one correction is due sometimes in coming days.

Corrective tgts are still the same: 1,3050 / or higher 1,3150

Note 2: Look at the agressive swing backs on other EUR crosses. EUR sharply bounced from the lows ag. CAD, AUD, NOK             . Looks like these commodity ccys are beaten. I think some late arrivals jumped on the bearish train after ECB announcement, while some others jumped on the USD bull story against these ccys too. So the late EUR bears likely burnt themselves. I think the late USD bulls will do so soon as well. Only strategic trend followers are doing fine.
Price action is interesting today. Down to 1,2910 then up again. Kijun Sen blocked the bearish move. ADX down, DMI started to zig-zag. Px action clearly shows consolidation now. Counter trend could start with a firm break above 1,3000.
With a close at/above 1,2950 the daily candle would be a hammer, suggesting more possible corrective move up, back into the regression trend.
FYG there is a 1,8 bn vanilla option maturity today at 1,2900 strike (10.00 AM NY). We need to see how it behaves after cut off time.
Kumowizard Kumowizard
option expired. Price up again. Even better 4 Hrs candle now. Let's see how it behaves at the 1,2950 lvl again.
1,2950 is clearly the horizontal key level ahead of possible correction.
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