EUR/USD factors to break below 1.2150, not to break above 1.2200
As was mentioned in my previous post, the economic recovery in the U.S. caused a failure to test the 1.23 in exchange rate, therefore there was a failure and the price hit the 1.2100 as a lower low last week, the negative release in the NFP and the rise in the hourly wage in U.S. had the market worrying one more time about inflation, and some had bets the price could break above 1.2200.
Here are some fundamental factors that shall prevent breaking above the 1.2200 but on the other hand to break below 1.2150.
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
- G7 reached a landmark deal to impose a minimum corporate tax rate, satisfying a U.S. demand for a minimum rate of at least 15% on foreign earnings.
- Yellen's speech "Biden should press ahead with his spending plan even if they trigger inflation that persists into 2023, If we ended up with a slightly HIGHER INTEREST rate environment it would be actually be a plus to the U.S." ( that is a clear sign that a HAWKISH FED is on the card in the next June's meeting ).
- U.K. "It is too early to say a planned easing of coronavirus curbs can proceed on June 21, as the rise of the highly transmissible Delta variant continues. (that rise put the EU at risk).
- U.S. passed the milestone of aadministering300 million vaccine doses.
- EU factory gate prices jumping the most since 2008.
- ECB expected to be dovish, and the insufficient attention to job markets carries risk for the ECB.
-Drop in German Factory Orders.
ACCORDING TO THE RECENT FUNDAMENTALS I EXPECT IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE 1.2200 AND THAT A BREAK BELOW 1.2150 IS VERY LIKELY TO HAPPEN WITHIN MONDAY/TUESDAY, EVEN A BREAK BELOW 1.2100 IS VERY POSSIBLE. A BREAK BELOW 1.2050 WOULD BE ON THE CARDS ON THURSDAY IF THE ECB RELEASE HAPPENS TO BE DOVISH, THE FACT THAT IS VERY VERY EXPECTED.
- THIS PICTURE REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY --
Here are some fundamental factors that shall prevent breaking above the 1.2200 but on the other hand to break below 1.2150.
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
- G7 reached a landmark deal to impose a minimum corporate tax rate, satisfying a U.S. demand for a minimum rate of at least 15% on foreign earnings.
- Yellen's speech "Biden should press ahead with his spending plan even if they trigger inflation that persists into 2023, If we ended up with a slightly HIGHER INTEREST rate environment it would be actually be a plus to the U.S." ( that is a clear sign that a HAWKISH FED is on the card in the next June's meeting ).
- U.K. "It is too early to say a planned easing of coronavirus curbs can proceed on June 21, as the rise of the highly transmissible Delta variant continues. (that rise put the EU at risk).
- U.S. passed the milestone of aadministering300 million vaccine doses.
- EU factory gate prices jumping the most since 2008.
- ECB expected to be dovish, and the insufficient attention to job markets carries risk for the ECB.
-Drop in German Factory Orders.
ACCORDING TO THE RECENT FUNDAMENTALS I EXPECT IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE 1.2200 AND THAT A BREAK BELOW 1.2150 IS VERY LIKELY TO HAPPEN WITHIN MONDAY/TUESDAY, EVEN A BREAK BELOW 1.2100 IS VERY POSSIBLE. A BREAK BELOW 1.2050 WOULD BE ON THE CARDS ON THURSDAY IF THE ECB RELEASE HAPPENS TO BE DOVISH, THE FACT THAT IS VERY VERY EXPECTED.
- THIS PICTURE REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY --