Only two weeks ago I wrote about EUR/USD:
"Eur-Usd: the Eurozone economy versus the American one. If we take the distance between the floor and ceiling as "scenario", the American economy has already come a long way, and it is close to the ceiling, the European one has just left the floor to begin its ascent.
So, in the medium to long-term, it is likely that the European economy will grow more than the American one, which is close to the ceiling and more than there cannot go (just compare the two unemployment rates). This will reduce the gap between the two economies a little. Translated into forex language: the euro will appreciate on the dollar. Besides the fact that the United States is pushing for a weak dollar that would favour exports that in recent years have been strongly penalised by a very strong currency. And at Merkel, a strong Euro would not mind.
In the medium to long-term, it is very likely that Eur-Usd will return to fluctuate in the 1.28/1.40 area as it did for some years before the first signs of a possible (and then confirmed by Mario Draghi in the following weeks) implementation of the Quantitative Easing also in the Eurozone."
Today, my view is not changed, in medium to long-term Euro is bullish vs. US Dollar. Another possible help to Euro can come from the "trade war" that Trump thinks to win easily. From a "trade war", most likely all the contenders will lose. What is sure, if there will be a winner, it won't the United States. To the Dollar, this stupid "war" is not good news.
Next week will be eventful: ECB meeting, employment data, Trump. And for you, EUR/USD up or down?
"Eur-Usd: the Eurozone economy versus the American one. If we take the distance between the floor and ceiling as "scenario", the American economy has already come a long way, and it is close to the ceiling, the European one has just left the floor to begin its ascent.
So, in the medium to long-term, it is likely that the European economy will grow more than the American one, which is close to the ceiling and more than there cannot go (just compare the two unemployment rates). This will reduce the gap between the two economies a little. Translated into forex language: the euro will appreciate on the dollar. Besides the fact that the United States is pushing for a weak dollar that would favour exports that in recent years have been strongly penalised by a very strong currency. And at Merkel, a strong Euro would not mind.
In the medium to long-term, it is very likely that Eur-Usd will return to fluctuate in the 1.28/1.40 area as it did for some years before the first signs of a possible (and then confirmed by Mario Draghi in the following weeks) implementation of the Quantitative Easing also in the Eurozone."
Today, my view is not changed, in medium to long-term Euro is bullish vs. US Dollar. Another possible help to Euro can come from the "trade war" that Trump thinks to win easily. From a "trade war", most likely all the contenders will lose. What is sure, if there will be a winner, it won't the United States. To the Dollar, this stupid "war" is not good news.
Next week will be eventful: ECB meeting, employment data, Trump. And for you, EUR/USD up or down?