FX:EURUSD Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
So here's what I have been watching lately, for some time now actually, successfully, (and I post this only to help you, but be careful it is not always reliable) in a nutshell... EURJPY , EURUSD , USDJPY AND SPY correlate well and not so well at times. When they correlate as follows: 1). EURJPY AND USDJPY UP, EURUSD DOWN MARKETS UP. 2). EURJPY AND USDJPY DOWN AND EURUSD UP, MARKETS DOWN. 3). When this relationship diverges, I hold, no trades until the correlation lines up again. I am tempted to forge ahead anyway, but I have learned to be disciplined. If you chart this for yourself, you will see this at different times, checking back even on the monthly. I have tried to explain this theory to brokers I know, and of course they laugh at it, so be for warned, if you share, you too may be thought foolish in the minds of the elite traders. I watch this overnight also, and more time than not signals what the open will be like. But not today, with the divergence shown on char, but we will seet. This can change during the trading day too. So although it is a tool, it is not a system, and you should not reply upon it soley or entirely, because it can change. I use it this way, chart , indexes, etc, etc, and then always check this relationship before I trade. i.e. yesterday I had several options with TZA in play and profited well, and was going to ride out the day, but at 12:20 PM I sold, as i watched the pairs signal/confirm a conclusion to the rounded top forming for the day. This two day down turn... the markets and the relationships of the pairs are diverged because of the volatility, which may be signalling consolidation, a hesitation, a sideways a day or two, to bounce or head down further. I posted a chart yesterday, history of past down turns, two days, and then... Leaning a day of mixed results or two, and then heading down again, but watching the pairs for any help here. Once again, its just another tool, not THE tool. And they can un relate too for a while, so its a day by day thing. Trade well, trade wisely. Best pf fortunes.