RobertPapon

Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 26/08/15

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
On Wednesday, EUR / USD market dominated by the supply side, which led to the abolition of part of the recent increases from the 1,1016- 1.1712. The supply without major problems coped with the first level at 1.1465 and then after the break, headed for Tuesday's minimum at 1.1397. The strong support for supply was the last action of the People's Bank of China, which lowered interest rates and this in turn resulted in a change of sentiment in the markets. Not without significance was also Wednesday's data from the US, on the basis of purchases of fixed assets, which proved to be better than expected (0.6% with market consensus of 0.4%). Some investors see better readings from the US, as a good omen before the September meeting of the Fed, which may be introduced for the December interest rate hike. A few words about the speech Wednesday Fed member - William C. Dudley, who confirmed a possible interest rate hike in December. Dudley also referred to the September rate hike, which in his view does not seem very attractive than it was a few weeks ago.
Last days of the week can be pro dollar, which should lead to further declines. What evidence may signal the strengthening of the dollar?

On Thursday we will know the important data from the US:

14:30 GDP (q / q) (Q2) forecast of 3.2%;
14:30 deflator of GDP (q / q) (Q2) forecast of 2.0%;
14:30 ascendant declared unemployed, forecast 274K

Better-than-expected readings once again confirm the good economic situation in the US and whet appetites for a December rate hike.

On the last day of the week we will see consumer inflation in Spain and Germany, which in my opinion should be weaker due to falling commodity prices. In this case, the question arises whether the ECB will be forced to further measures (new QE?), Since the fall in prices will be a factor that will shoot deflation.

The attention of investors is sure to attract an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, which will take place from 27-29 August. This year, however, without the participation of the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen.
The outlook for EUR / USD:

Wednesday's daily candle and uplifting candle weekly, suggests further advantage of declines at the end of the week. Currently, we are in a correction of recent increases with the level of 1,1016-1,1712. In this case the target range after breaking previous support levels should be the level of 1,1277-1,1282 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement recent increases). If on Thursday we get better data from the US, the supply will lead to the penetration of such assistance and direct toward 1,1180-1,1215. Further declines negate the option of correction and may be the beginning of a new wave of appreciation of the dollar against the euro             .

If worse readings from the US, demand should head for the summit Tuesday at 1.1397 and next target would be the resistance at 1.1465.

Please note that the currency pair in the first part of the day can consolidate a signal to be evolving towards data from the US.
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