* wave 5 (blue), of wave 5 (yellow), of wave 5 (green)
* 5th wave diagonal (blue) overlapping structure, with fibonacci ratios matching "three drives to a bottom"
In addition, we have the following (not shown)
* Long-term (10-year) support
* Weekly DiNapoli nearing crossover, first crossover since the crossover on May 9.
* Oversold monthly territory in a
Fundamentally, this would be a play on orchestration delays in the ECB's . The market has priced in significant dovish policy at this point and the ECB has committed to it, but the fragmented political scene of the euro makes implementation less straightforward compared to, say, the US or Japan.
Only short-term trades would be aiming for a 4th wave target, but the longer-term picture support levels are shown in the chart. We can't create a true final wave end target for the blue wave until wave 4 completes, but a reasonable estimate would come in around the 1.22 level. An inverse wave puts the wave 4 target squarely in wave 2 territory.
A failure to end wave 4 would signal a truncated 3-wave structure similar to the 2009 SP500 bottom's missing wave 5. If the structure breaks down, it will be obvious. Actual entries would be made with Dinapoli trend entries on a lower time frame.